Wikileaks Peru: Well I don't know about the other character assessments made by other US ambassadors of other world figures....

...but this Ambassador Struble dude has totally nailed Twobreakfasts. Here's the link, here's the text:

ID:	88101
Date:	2006-12-04 22:44:00
Origin:	06LIMA4570
Source:	Embassy Lima
Classification:	SECRET
Dunno:	06STATE189857
Destination:	VZCZCXYZ0004 RR RUEHWEB DE RUEHPE #4570/01 3382244 ZNY SSSSS ZZH R 042244Z DEC 06 FM AMEMBASSY LIMA TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3201 INFO RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
S E C R E T LIMA 004570 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/04/2016 TAGS: PINR, PGOV, PE SUBJECT: PERU: PRESIDENT GARCIA'S EMOTIONAL AND PHYSICAL HEALTH REF: STATE 189857 Classified By: Ambassador J Curtis Struble for reason 1.4(C). 1. (S) This message is in response to reftel request for information on the emotional and physical health of President Alan Garcia. Our responses are slugged to the questions in reftel paragraphs. We do not always have first-hand information on the questions asked, a fact reflected in some of our answers below. 2. (S) Garcia's overall health appears to be good. Notwithstanding a strenuous work schedule, he has clearly gained weight over the past several months. This shows (both in press photos and private meetings) in his slightly larger jowls and a growing paunch. Reports of manic depression or bipolar disorder are impossible to confirm, but rumors in this connection are widespread. For example, many of our contacts (with purported first-hand knowledge) say that Garcia has always been moody, disposed to sudden flights of enthusiasm, plunges of bad humor, and abrupt changes of mind. Many of the more damaging rumors appear to have their origins in the latter part of Garcia's first term, when his popularity plummeted and the political and security situations spiraled out of control. According to some reports, in response Garcia at one point fell into a deep funk, locked himself behind closed doors and refused public contact of any kind for days on end. While that report continues to hound him, there are no indications that it responds to a long-standing or deep-set dimension of his psychological or emotional makeup. 3. (S) We do not have the names and/or specialties of his doctors. 4. (S) We have no direct information with respect to medications taken by the president. A number of our contacts have told us (as though it were an established fact) that Garcia takes lithium for anti-depression (anti-bipolar disorder) purposes, but we cannot confirm the veracity of these reports. 5. (S) There is no evidence that Garcia suffers from alcohol or drug abuse. We understand he does drink socially. 6. (S) Persecution, real as well as imagined, has been an integral part of the president's life. Garcia's father, a founding member of APRA, was imprisoned for several years for his political activism. The APRA has been the object of political persecution during Peru's recent era of military dictatorships (1968-80), its activities as anti-regime "democrats" curtailed. Garcia himself chose to leave Peru after his first term ended in 1990, partly out of fears of persecution. After one year of exile in Colombia, he fled to France on hearing reports that he was being pursued by Fujimori henchmen either for assassination or kidnapping back to Peru. More recently, as president, Garcia and his son have been the targets of alleged kidnapping plots. These experiences have broadly shaped his personal and political outlook, and exacerbated an innate tendency to keep information "close-hold," strictly limited to an intimate circle of advisors. 7. (S) A master politician, Garcia has survived and thrived via the indirect threat, ably playing rivals against one another and undermining, with cold calculation, the political bases of potential competitors, including those within his own party. Garcia's APRA party is also well known as the most effective political machine in Peru, complete with goon squads that are dispatched to do various kinds of dirty work on behalf of its leaders. We have no information that he has ever issued explicit violent threats or the like. While there are widespread reports that he is a difficult, demanding boss and a moody person, we have no information that he is abusive toward advisors or family. 8. (S) According to most reports, Garcia has an extremely heavy work load and regularly takes on too many tasks. As a man who lives and breathes politics, at the expense of most other dimensions of his life, he often works late. It could almost be said that work is all he does. Moreover, he is a pure politician in the sense that he has never done anything but the work of candidate or president, and it is all he knows how to do. (He has written books, but most critics understand that is not his gift.) 9. (S) Garcia has the reputation of being an acute micro-manager and very demanding on his staff, even tasking senior ministers in public and on the spot with various responsibilities and duties. In the sense that he often expects Ministers to divine and carry out his will rather than to generate policy ideas or propose alternative solutions, he demands the impossible. As for lofty ideas, he appears to have learned lessons from his first term, lowering expectations and focusing on pragmatic programs rather than on large romantic visions. For example, he has no apparent ambition to change the world, re-order political and economic realities according to a new "vision" for Latin America, or create the new socialist specimen or Bolivarian man. The signal programs of his second term so far -- Sierra Exportadora, Agua Para Todos, the Decentralization Shock -- amount in many ways to recombining and repackaging diverse existing tactical poverty reduction schemes (including USAID's PRA -- Poverty Reduction and Alleviation -- project) than to pursuing an overriding lofty ambition. At the same time, most observers see Garcia's strengths as rhetorical rather than administrative, in inspiring with impassioned and even poetic oratory rather than in overseeing (prosaic) projects slowly through their step by step implementation. 10. (S) Garcia's public and private persona are, in many ways, at odds. In public, he tends to strike the majesterial presidential pose, chest thrust forward, head held high, arms and hands gesturing in the formal, almost choreographed manner of the leader. He is also prone to giving long public lectures, reflecting a know-it-all and superior tone. All this comes across as pompous and inflated. By contrast, in private Garcia is a more informal, disarming and even considerate figure. He is courteous and deferential with visitors, and an excellent listener, often probing interlocutors for more detailed information. One aspect on which there is near universal agreement is that Garcia has a colossal ego, which can blind him to the merits of good ideas and alternatives that he himself has not generated. To some observers, while he is unlikely to repeat the mistakes that brought Peru close to ruin during his first administration, the ego is Garcia's Achilles' heel and could have counterproductive consequences to the current government, especially if unchecked. 11. (S) Garcia's attention span appears to be good, and his listening skills are excellent. We have no information that he has difficulty in concentrating, gets confused or is forgetful. As noted above, there are widespread reports of a certain emotional volatility, but it is not clear that this impairs his ability to think or to express himself clearly. 12. (S) We have no information about any periods of intense energy or activity, racing thoughts or incoherence. We have not noted any tendency to shake, blink or roll his eyes. 13. (S) While there are widespread reports that Garcia fell into a deep depression near the end of his first term (as noted above), we have no information that that corresponds to a deep-set emotional characteristic or that it has recurred regularly since that time. We have no information about talk of suicide. 14. (S) We have no information regarding any decreased need for sleep or food. A truly gifted orator, he never sounds as though his speech were hurried or pressured, nor does it follow a notably illogical flow. 15. (S) We have no information about his exercise routine or diet regimen, nor any dietary restrictions due to ongoing medications. 16. (S) We have no information regarding any compulsive overeating, shopping, gambling or the like. That said, as noted above, Garcia has manifestly gained weight since being in office and is likely a consequence of his eating amply and well. There are widespread rumors of Garcia's numerous extra-marital sexual liaisons. Recently, Garcia publicly acknowledged one of them, with Ms. Elizabeth Roxanne Cheesman, with whom he had a young child. While he publicly claimed that this relationship occurred during the brief time he was estranged from his wife Pilar Nores, some observers have suggested that it was much more enduring than he had publicly let on. 17. (S) In the interim between the end of his first presidential term in 1990 and the current term, which began in July of 2006, Garcia has spent time both abroad and in Peru. After leaving office the first time, in 1992 Garcia fled to a kind of quasi political exile in Bogota, Colombia, where he remained for one year. (Garcia harbors a deep sympathy for Colombia dating back to that time.) From there, he fled to France, where he lived for the following eight  years. (From this period, Garcia speaks excellent French and has a strong personal sympathy for French society and life.)  He returned to Peru in 2001, following Alberto Fujimori's  resignation from the presidency. He was formally separated  from his wife in 2004-5. STRUBLE

Peru Mining, Taxes, Tomás Cenzano and the APRA Party's Contribution to Society

Remember back in March when the Winchumayo gold mine in the Ituata district of Puno, Peru suffered a landslide and multiple deaths ensued? Well, we wrote about it at IKN in this post right here if memory isn't serving so well.

So today this story is hitting the wires in Peru, all about how the government SUNAT tax office is launching a big campaign to get back taxes paid by those that have dragged their feet at the moment of paying their dues to society. Chief among debtors is a mining company called "Media Naranja" that owes the state a cool two hundred and twenty-three million, eight hundred and seventy-nine thousand, four hundred and fifty-four Nuevos Soles...and 40 cents. To give context, at today's exchange rate that's U$76.93m in greenbacks. A lot of cash.

So what's the connection between paragraph one and paragraph two? Well, Winchumayo is owned by three entities who then rent out its operation to the hundreds (even thousands) of artisanal miners who work the seams and get the gold. The typical system in the Andean Amazon basin region where Winchumayo is located is to get the miners to work five days for the owners, then on the 6th day anything they produce they keep (other areas use different ratios of days). Here are the three owners:

• APRA Congressman Alfredo Tomás Cenzano Sierralta (33%)

• The mayor of the Ituata district, Roger Saya Tapara (34%)

• Foreign private mining company Oro Vega S.A.C. (with offices in Lima) (33%)

In other words, a private miner and two politicians have been making their millions via the ethically dubious, clearly dangerous and almost totally unregulated world of the South American artisanal miner. But the interesting one is Alfredo Tomás Cenzano Sierralta, and for two reasons:

• Members of Congress are prohibited from being involved in this sort of business under the Peru parliament's ethical standards and, more importantly, it contravenes Peru's mining law. Thus Cenzano is violating the rules of Congress and the law of his land to make himself rich, not just getting rich on the backs of the artisan miners paid their pittances under extremely dangerous and unhealthy work conditions.

• Alfredo Tomás Cenzano Sierralta is the 45% owner of 'Media Naranja', the mining company mentioned above that owes the taxman nearly U$77m. Media Naranja is exactly the same kind of set up as Winchumayo, as it owns and mines gold concessions in the Andean amazon basin via the same abusive labour agreements with artisanal miners, the same bad practices, the same get-rich-at-all-costs attitude of the owners. Same, same , same.

And that's how the APRA party works in Peru, folks. You often see me mention the stinking corruption of the APRA party, but it's not so often that an open-and-shut case of its disgusting modus operandi comes to light. An APRA congressman abusing workforce and environment to get rich on unregulated gold production that doesn't pay his taxes to multimillion dollar levels.

Alfredo Tomás Cenzano Sierralta (for it is he)

These are the people running Peru in 2009. No wonder people think it's investor-friendly.

Viva investment grade. Viva, viva, viva.

Peru's cabinet reshuffle happens this week

Twobreakfasts this morning announced that the current band of ineffective and corrupt puppets that make up his cabinet will be changed this weekend, including the official goodbye for Yehude Simon. Speculation is now underway about who will make up the new cabinet of ineffective and corrupt puppets with "Who gets the PM job?" top of the list of chattering class questions that nobody outside Peru really cares about.

Thus, as Otto would just love to join the chattering classes one of these days, here's a list of possibles with odds and comments by your humble scribe:

Pedro Pablo Kuczynski: Most likely choice right now. PPK has made it clear he's running for Prez in 2011 and the PM job will give him the public radar he needs to launch a campaign. Architect of the economic reforms in the Toledo gov't. Rich and influential and likes reminding people of those two facts. Current odds: Even money.

Rafael Rey: The current Ambassador to Italy, Twobreakfasts met with Rey last weekend for informal talks about.....we don't know (it was off agenda). Not an APRA party member but rightwing leaning and proponent of orthodox economic measures (i.e. status quo in Peru). Member of Opus Dei. Current odds: 3/1 (but quite likely to get a cabinet job).

José Chang: Current Education Minister, APRA lapdog and Twobreakfasts sycophant. About as charismatic as a vanilla blancmange. If Twobreakfasts wants to play it neutral (unlikely) he has a squeak. Current odds: 6/1.

Mercedes Araoz: Current Minister of Foreign Commerce and the point person in the Free Trade Agreements. An honest politico (that rare breed in Peru) and generally liked (perhaps better said is 'not disliked') by both peers and citizens. May be too valuable where she already is. Current odds: 8/1.

Lourdes Flores: Head of the UN party and rightwing fave, Flores might accept if offered to give herself radar before 2011. Twobreakfasts would have to swallow some of the gargantuan pride to put her in a position of power, though. Coming to the end of her shelf life as a presidential candidate. Current odds: 10/1

Javier Silva Ruete: Ex-FinMin and respected figure, but probably ruled out because he's nobody's puppet. The kind of guy that's just too honest to get to the top in PeruPolitik. Current odds 10/1.

Ollanta Humala: More chance of the hole in my tush healing up than this dude getting a job under Twobreakfasts. Current odds: 100/1.

Romulo Leon

Romulo (for it is he)

Does the name Romulo Leon ring a bell? It might do, and when I remind you that he was the dude that was taped talking about bribes obtained from foreign oil companies in Peru, you'll probably go "aaaahh yeah!...I gotcha, Otto." Here's how this humble corner of cyberspace reported the story way back on October 6th, 2008:

Last night Peru investigative reporting program "El Cuarto Poder" played audio tapes of APRA party insider Romulo Leon and PetroPeru bigwig Alberto Quimper as they discussed the best way to make themselves a nice slice of bribery and corruption money. Between them they arranged for a foreign oil company, Discover Petroleum of Norway, to land five concession blocks in Peru (continues)

In the immediate fallout, then PM Jorge Del Castillo and the rest of the Twobreakfasts cabinet resigned, as the trails of corruption were soon traced to the highest levels of the administration. Then, as you'll probably recall, Romulo went into hiding and police did a Where's Waldo? all over Peru until giving himself up a full 30 days later.

You've already guessed what I'm going to say, haven't you? Yup, the dude has been let out of jail. Peru's Poder Justicial (PJ) ('Justicial Power'...the law people) have offically let him do his arrest thing in the comfort of his own home, but as Juan Sheput points out, house arrest in Peru is simply the first step in quietly dropping any case of this type, especially for an APRA buddy during the time of an APRA government. And if all this isn't enough, check out one of the reasons the PJ said he's good to do his arrest on his sofa (Sheput dixit)

One of the considerations of the PJ fr the freeing (because house arrest with this government is being freed) of Rómulo León was that this individual has already been tried for corruption and demonstrated good personal conduct.

Wilkommen, Mondo Bizarro. Yes you read that right, in Peru it's considered a positive that because a dude has been tried for corruption previously and while the trial went on didn't try to skip the country or kill anybody or whatever. It's good reason to let him out.

Meanwhile, this week's 'No Shit Sherlock' award is won by outgoing (he's gone next week) Prime Minister Yehude Simon, who says that freeing Romulo today was "a bad signal for the country." Second prize in the NSS award goes to opposition congressman Isaac Meckler who said that a link seems to exist between the Courts and the APRA party. Ah wuz shocked, ah tellz ya....shocked ah wuz.

Hey, maybe.....just maybe, that link is something we've already mentioned here at IKN. It just so happens that Romulo Leon has a daughter who's a congress member for the APRA party in the current parliament. Luciana León also knew all about the 'petroaudios' corruption case because she was found with a whle bunch of e-mails from her father about it all. But León is also the protegé(e) of Mercedes Cabanillas, who is ....roll on the drums...the present Minister of the Interior (!) and as we mentioned before was closely involved with the (ahem) modernization of PeruPetro in the Twobreakfasts administration before getting a ministrial position.

Gotta love these APRA dudes. Viva investment grade, everyone.

Lessons in Quechua

We've seen Hilaria Supa in IKN previously, when this post tracked the racist attitude of blue-eyed whitey Lima establishment towards the congresswoman for the Cusco region.

Today the upholders of Peru's institutionalized racism are on her back again, as recently she apparently used the following words to describe APRA (the Twobreakfasts party) members in the Chamber of Congress (a great chance to add to your Quechua vocab coming up right now);

• Aras (outsiders)
• Suacuna (thieves)
• Leqles (snotty)
• Maqllas cuna (tight-fisted, bad, broken)
• Maqlla Runa (bad people)
• Maula (donkey, brute, stupid)
• Suha (thief)
• Suhacha (petty thief)
• Supaypa Wawan (children of the devil)

Apparently the APRA congress members want Hilaria Supa investigated by the congressional ethics committee. I can only guess they feel the need to examine how she manages to tell the truth and want to emulate her for once in their pathetic, two-faced, self-serving lives.

Whatever makes you think Peru's APRA is a bunch of corrupt scum?

Asia, as well as being a continent, is the name of a coastal district of Peru that covers a 50km stretch of the most desirable and expensive coastline on the Pacific coast of South America. It's one of the places middle class Limeños have adopted as the place to hang in summer, with second homes mushrooming.....

.... and nocturnal boulevards doing good business.


It's also the district where the woman in this picture.......

.....a certain Yary Valencia, has recently managed to buy 50 hectares of real estate for the princely sum of two US cents per square metre, which adds up at a touch over U$10,000 for land worth millions.

How did she do it? Nobody is exactly sure right now, but the 800 residents of the area bought up are crying merry hell. They made it on to Peruvian investigative reporter Nicolás Lucór's TV show last night calling scam, foul, rip-off and plenty of other names.

But who's the guy in that photo with Yary? Dudettes and dudes, may I present to you Yary's husband César Zumaeta, APRA member of congress in the National Government and one of the rising stars in President Twobreakfasts' political machine. Sheer coincidence that an APRA congressman would be mixed up in a scam rip-off land deal though, for sure.

Hat tip Mate Pastor

Peru's February GDP Growth +0.19%

How many breakfasts?
LatAm's worst President is about to get his trasero
served to him on a plate next mealtime

Now will you start believing me and stop believing the intellectually redundant bullshitter Twobreakfasts and his party of liars and thieves?

This is the link that takes you to the 33 page PDF published by Peru's INEI stats office this afternoon. Most level-headed commentators knew that Peru was slowing down, but these numbers are nothing short of shocking. Peru has hit a brick wall and its people are about to find out just how much their President has been hoodwinking them all.

I've spent a good hour poring over the numbers trying to find some saving grace. Construction is still holding up, but the real soft centres are the 7.45% drop in the manufacturing sector and the commerce sector, the key to understanding the internal demand economy, down 0.71%. I immediately recall the utter balderdash published by Fitch and S&P when they upped Peru to investment grade, as they both used the "strong internal economy breaking away from the traditional economic motors" kind of argument as centrepiece. Total lies.

Trickledown doesn't work, period. Bringing back Luis "world's luckiest economist" Carranza (luck's run out though) as some sort of half-assed economic supersub won't work, period. Telling people to "think positively" and assuring them that Peru is a Utopian oasis in the storm hasn't worked, period. And now going forward we'll see the difference in reaction between the prudent countries that have warned their citizens of the storm (e.g. Chile) and the irresponsible that used ostrich politics (e.g. Peru).

If the main Spanish language report is too heavy for you, check out this resumé in English from AP for the main points, or maybe this one from DJNW or perhaps this one from Reuters. And don't say I didn't try to warn you. We're all in the crapper on this one...said it before and I'll say it again. The only difference is the level of preparation that countries have done so far. Peru hasn't lifted a finger and now it will pay heavily for its mistake.

Musical chairs, twobreakfasts style

As his President enters the room, Luis Valdivieso
shields his eyes from the glare of his smile

Remember about a month ago when Peru's FinMin Luis Miguel Valdiveso suddenly and unexpectedly resigned? Remember how his predecessor Luis "luckiest economist in LatAm" Carranza stepped up to take his place? Remember how, in the hasty and brief press conference Valdivieso said he'd been offered an alternative job by President Twobreakfasts?

Well yesterday the episode cleared itself up and Valdivieso was named as Peru's new ambassador of the United States of America, no less. It's all pretty logical on the superficial level, of course. Luismi was an IMF flunkey for years and knows the protocol side of the US backwards. He's also replacing the current Peruvian ambassador, Felipe Ortiz de Zevallos, who strangely and coincidentally handed in his resignation on January 21st, the day after Valdivieso resigned.

But it does shed a little light on the way Twobreakfasts is thinking (if the term is apt) on the Peruvian economy. He clearly wanted Carranza back, as the guy has a higher profile than Valdivieso and is (due to his incredibly lucky timing) credited as being a good hands-on economy manager. In fact he just continued the autopilot that came from the real architect of the Peruvian economy reforms, PPK, and did nothing much....the 'ain't broke don't fix it' rule. But style is far more important than substance in The World According To Twobreakfasts and Carranza's arrival has been an APRA spindoctors dream.

But once again, IKN wonders why Carranza came back and how Twobreakfasts got him to agree. When Carranza first resigned his post, the reason was that he wasn't making enough money as FinMin and wanted to get a nice cushy, highly paid gig in some private consultancy. Yeah, truly, it was said out loud right here by then PM Del Castillo and reported by your diligent IKN. It's kind of intriguing to think about all the recent corruption scandals in this awful Peruvian APRA government and then think that Carranza suddenly finds the FinMin job attractive once again, is it not?

Alan Garcia is a liar: Some empiricals

At the same time President Twobreakfasts was waxing lyrical about Peru's stability and how it was shielded from the world recession and how Peru's GDP would grow 6.5% in 2009 (date, November 2008), the following was happening to Peru's trade balance:

And as bad as that chart looks, if you look further it actually gets worse. This second chart shows the import/export breakdown that results in the above trade balance. As you can see, the slowdown in both sides of the equation adds further recessionary pressure:

Developing nations such as Peru rely on export capacity to drive economic growth. No exports = no growth. That's a bit of cruel reality Economics 101 for you, dudes. S&P, Fitch and all the others can try to hoodwink you into believing that the internal economy is Peru's new driver but that is just so much crap, sad to say. Peru is not a strong currency nation that can run an indefinite trade deficit with the rest of the world; its ability to grow is totally dependent on its ability to sell to other places. And that chart up there is not good news.

It's not about unduly knocking a country or a region (as accused yesterday by some dumbass), it's about looking at the facts, telling the truth and not listening to obvious bullshit from obvious bullshitters. The main reason why Peru is in more trouble than (for example) Chile is that Chile is being mature about its future problems. The government of Peru is still jawboning its people into believing that everything is fine. That Peru GDP forecast is now down to 5%, by the way. It's going lower. Take that to the bank.

Where's Waldo? (Peru Edition): The joke continues

Hey, remember all that thing about the big Petroperu corruption scandal and the politico dude Romulo Leon who decided to run away instead of answer to authorities about the backhanders he was caught on tape admitting? Well amazingly enough after a full month he's still on the run.

So today the Peru gov't have slapped a one hundred thousand Nuevo Sol bounty on Romulo's tush (that's about U$33k and a lot of money for a non-politico in Peru). Or in other words, the gov't and Police are either too corrupt or too stupid to find him for themselves (probably both). To give you an idea, dearest reader, there was a classic line from the absolute toppy top head chief honcho of police last week. When asked "Where's Waldo" he replied

"The thing is that Peru is very big."

That's a direct quote. You cannot make this shit up. Oh my how I love Latin America... wouldn't live anywhere else if you paid me.

Good news from Peru: Ollanta Humala has just lost the 2011 election...YAY!

Humala: "Don't taze me dude!"

The reaction of opposition parties to the appointment of Yehude Simon has been funny. The Fujimoristas have tried to dig up Simon's past by accusing him of having a terrorist background....err that's because he was in opposition to the Fujimori quasi-dictatorship in the 1990s and El Chino decided to trump up charges and throw Simon in jail rather than listen to him any longer....Fujimori was like that. Meanwhile the reaction of Ollanta Humala (the main opposition leader in the highly fractured world of Peruvian party politics) to the appointment of Yehude Simon as new cabinet chief was telling. Humala has had his legs swept from under him by this Twobreakfasts move, and he knows it. There's nothing bad he could say about Simon without it reflecting on his own background, so he was reduced to snarking that it was obviously due to some kind of political pact between APRA and the Humanist Party (that of Simon).

Well DUH, eejit! What else would you call it if the President calls someone from a different party to their own to become the 2nd most powerful politico in the country? Fact is that Humala knows he's just lost a lot of the left-leaning protest vote to Simon in 2011, and now Yehude (why do I always see violins with that name?) must be a serious contender for the toppy top job next time around. I'm very glad that Humala's nose is out of joint on this appointment, as the guy is a total dickhead. Imagine an insincere Hugo Chávez without the charisma or crowd-pleasing charm and a dose of xenophobia on top and you're kinda half way there. I call him "the wrong man at the right time." I hope that Simon steals his thunder once and for all.

Back to Yehude, and if you were wondering why you haven't heard of him before, don't fret. Rank and file had never registered his name in Lima, either. Here's a September 21/22 2008 poll conducted in Lima that asked for names of politicos the people liked or approved of:

Luis Castañeda 80.5% approval (Mayor of Lima; always says he doesn't want the top job)
Keiko Fujimori 12.9% (El Chino's daughter, and just as shifty)
Lourdes Flores 10.9% (right wing leader, fading star)
Alejandro Toledo 9.9% (ex Prez, enjoying a swan song)
Ollanta Humala 8% (more popular in the provinces, esp in South Peru.... still a dickhead)
Alberto Andrade 6.8% (stuffed suit)
Pedro Pablo Kuczynski 3.3% (smart economist, ex-PM)
Jorge del Castillo 3% (bye bye Mini-Me, you won't be missed)
Susana Villarán 2.6% (you go girl...Otto hopes she gets a job under Simon)
Mario Huamán 0.1% (Union leader, troublemaker)

You'll note that Yehude Simon doesn't even make a 0.1% showing on that list which is less than a month old. That's the way the Limeños are; if it doesn't happen in the capital city they are totally ignorant of it. However, now that Simon has big job in big city he'll get big boost to his ratings going into the 2011 election race, take that to the bank. I'd go as far as to say that President Twobreakfasts has just made the best decision of his Presidency so far, but now it's up to Simon to run with the ball he's been tossed. If he makes a good job of it, consider him President-in-Waiting.

Peru's Cabinet Ministers: All gone, bye bye

Well, President Twobreakfasts has done it in style; instead of picking or choosing a few sacrificial lambs, he's "accepted the resignation of" (read 'sacked') all of his ministers. From the good (Antonio Brack) to the bad (MiniMe, Alva Castro) to the indifferent (Valdivieso, Pinilla), all of them have just been given more time to spend with their families.

No word yet on who will replace the motley crew, but all the buzz is now around Yehude Simon (as mentioned this morning). Maybe PPK for Finance Minister, too. It's also possible that some of the same faces are re-hired in different roles. And Brack should be re-instated at Environment immediately if there's any justice in this world. That's throwing the baby out with the bathwater if he loses his post. Vamos a ver...........

UPDATE: Here's Bloomberg's version

UPDATE 2, 10:30pm EST: Otto's famous jungle drums can confirm that Yehude Simon will be given the job of Cabinet Chief. This is very good news imho. You heard it here first, folks.

Peru: The Petroperu corruption scandal gives Yehude Simon his chance

Yehude Simon (for it is he)

Last night the whole of the Peru ministerial cabinet offered their resignations to President Twobreakfasts. While this is not as unusual as it sounds (there's often a symbolic resignation offering), this time Alan will be forced to act. Likely losses include the Prime Minister Jorge MiniMe del Castillo along with other long-time Alan cronies and APRA stalwarts such as Alva Castro (MinInterior). This follows on from the scandal Del Castillo caused in Peru's Congress yesterday when he and his cabinet tried and failed to barge in on normal proceedings. The result was one of those scenes from foreign parliaments you get to see on the TV in your own country sometimes

Rumours are swirling about the replacements. One name mentioned for the role of PM is Pedro Pablo Kuczynsky, better know to the world as PPK. A respected figure and smart economist, PPK was PM in the Toledo gov't. Today he said that even though he wasn't considering a return to public office, he'd be willing to help etc etc yada yada.

But another name on the lips of those who know is more interesting. Yehude Simon has already been mentioned at this blog and is a rising star who was already tipped for the top before this Petroperu mess started. Now the centre-left governor of Lambayeque region (and ex prisoner under the Fujimori regime) is almost certainly going to land a ministerial role, and might even get to play number two to Twobreakfasts. Your optimistic Otto hopes Simon gets his chance; he's run his region well so far and has excellent social credentials...and by all accounts he's a nice guy. And while we're at it, how about a post for blogfriend Susana Villarán, as a steadier hand on the social tiller is difficult to imagine.

Times are indeed a-changing, and they certainly needed to change in Peru. The APRA government of Alan has been mediocre at best and downright bad most of the time. Alan's 19% approval rating isn't some fluke, and this corruption scandal was the proverbial straw for the proverbial camel. Peruvians want change at the top and a change in direction for the country. Hopefully this week's corruption scandal will provide the catalyst.

Peru: The country of extrajudicial killings and media silencing they don't tell you about

"What? Peru's army goes around shooting innocent people? What? Peru closes down opposition radio stations? Isn't that supposed to be the hated Chávez and Venezuela? I thought that Peru was our friend and a true democracy?"

Dear friend (probably) sitting up North, prepare to be confused by the truth. What follows under the line is my translation of this quite magnificent post at Susana Villarán's blog today called "When Impunity Reigns" (Spanish language). With all the financial woes going on right now, it's easy (for me at least) to get immersed in the world of stocks and bonds. But this blog is also about LatAm political and social issues and what follows is about as important as it gets.

Peru cannot be allowed to slip back into a state of military terror and authoritarian dictates. Neither from insurgent terrorist groups nor its government who (although Peruvians still have a hard time in admitting it) were also responsible for thousands of extrajudicial murders not so very long ago. Although it's a long post that follows, please take time out and read. Otto

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From El Blog de Susana Villarán

What happens in our regions and provinces doesn't make headlines. The efforts of websites and alternative forms of communication allows us to know what happens at first hand. In this post I want to highlight two acts that should make all Peruvians react:

• The executions and disappearances under the guise of a military operation against Sendero in VRAE (Ottonote; the Shining Path terrorist organization operating in VRAE, the coca/cocaine producing region of Peru) on September 14th which has been shrouded in disinformation by the Ministry of Defence to avoid punishment. Reports of the killings have been made from the zone by human rights organizations such as 'Paz y Esperanza' (in English, "Peace and Hope") via its base in Ayacocho, and APRODEH (Ottonote: Peruvian human rights group). These disappearances and extrajudicial killings must be investigated and their authors severely sanctioned.

• The other issue concerns the closure of Radio Mercurio Huancavelica, a radio station that serves the people of the Huancavelica region and its demands. A few days ago I was told about the threats from the Ministry of Transport and Communication to close 'Radio Uno' in Tacna (South Peru), a station with by far the highest audience ratings in its region and a station that we should feel proud about for its unstoppable fight for people's rights and its excellent information. Does it bother Mrs Aljovín, close ally of Minister Zavala, that Radio Uno easily beats RPP's audience in Tacna?

But its not just Radio Mercurio and Radio Uno: Radio Marañon is also under threat. Father Francisco Muguiro, director of this radio station in the North of the country, has recently been accused by police of inciting indigenous rebellion.

We defend freedom of speech and stand up to be counted against those who wish to silence the voice of the people. Regional, local and community radios are open spaces for public and organizations, and are being clamped down upon by the authorities.

From the INFOREGION network:
Huamanga - Ayacucho (6 October 2008 - 18:09)

The Dead were Not Terrorists; They were Locals that Disappeared After the VRAE Military Incursion

This morning, after waiting several hours, the families of the campesinos (Ottonote: rural dwellers. Literally 'peasants', but the Spanish word does not carry the stigma of the direct translation) that disappeared on September 14th at the annex to Rio Seco, located 1km from the village of Mayobamba, were finally allowed to identify the four bodies recently brought from VRAE and which had been in the installations of the Institute of Legal Medicine of the Minister of Public.

Family members and their lawyers, along with the member of parliament for Ayacucho Elizabeth León Minaya, entered the installations of the Huamanga Institute of Legal Medicine to begin the indentification process of the dead who had been labeled as terrorists in an offical Defence Ministry communique.

Outside the building, Frank Canchanya Rimachi, brother of José Félix Canchaya Rimachi emotionally said that he had indentified his brother even though the body showed signs of decomposure. He asked for human rights organizations to speak out and demanded severe sanctions for those responsible.

Another family member that went into the building was Marcelino Pichardo, who identified his son Maximiliano, his daughter-in-law who was five months pregnant and his young son Alejandro.

The Victims Were from the Village Defence Committee

Alexis Avilés, lawyer of the families, stated that "humble people have been assassinated and they have tried to cover up the crime. First they denied their existence and later they accused them of being terrorists."

The lawyer said that fortunately they could prove the victims' identity, who were mainly members of the Autodefence Committe of Mayobamba, "a fact that proves false any association with terrorist groups."

The mortal remains that were identified belonged to Maximiliano Pichardo Fernández, vicepresident of the Autodefence Committe of Mayobamba, his wife Rosa Chávez, 22 and five months pregnant, José Félix Canchanya Rimachi, husband of Lucy Pichardo, the woman who reported the attack in Huanta, and Alejandro Pichardo Fernández, just 16 years old.

Up to now Moisés Pichardo Pariona and Rosalinda Pichardo Chávez, just one year old, are still missing. To accelerate the investigations, Public Ministry authorities have asked for the use of X-ray equipment.

Huamanga - Ayacucho, 6 October 2008 The Mayobamba Dead Received Weapons from the Army the Help Fight Against Terrorism. Documents Prove that the Missing People in VRAE were Members of the Autodefence Committee

Family members and lawyers showed a community agreement that demostrates that the people who disappeared during the VRAE military operations against terrorism were members of the Autodefence Committee of Mayobamba and had been recognized as such by the army, an entity that had given various weapons to the group to help fight against the remnants of Sendero Luminoso.

This confirms the existence of the people and proves they they not part of any terrorist group. On September 14th, according to testimoies from locals at the Rio Seco annex, approximately 125 were at the National Pavilion when about shots and explosions were heard coming from one kilometre away.

Immediately members of the Autodefence Committee of Mayobamba sent their leader Carlos Gutarra Ayala to find out what had happened. However he was detained by army troops and tortured.

Gutarra Ayala was released several hours later and found by locals in the community of Jésus María with evident signs of mistreatment. Because of this, dozens of Mayobamba locals decided to leave their land and go to other communities in VRAE.

According to the head of the Myobamba locals, the following people are still missing: José Félix Canchanya Rimachi, Maximiliano Pichardo Fernández, Moisés Pichardo Pariona, Alejandro Pichardo Fernández, Rosalinda Pichardo Chávez y Rosa Chávez, 22 years old and five months pregnant.

The multisectoral committee visited the zone

Last weekend representatives of public institutions traveled to VRAE to investigate the occurances. The Commission for Peace and Development of Ayacucho, representatives of PRONAA and FONCODES were part of the group along with lawyers and human rights defence organizations such as the Peace and Hope Association and APRODEH.

This working party collected testimonies and confirmed that the army troops violated human rights. Alexis Avilés, one of the defence lawyers of local woman Lucy Pichardo Fernández who managed to survive the armed forces attack, stated that there was sufficient evidence to demonstrate presumed forced disappearances, as there are testimonial declarations from a person who was witness to the occurances.

"General EP Raymundo Flores has admitted the existence of a military operaton in the zone by orders of his command and we therefore request that the State hand over the bodies of the people still missing", he said.

In Huancavelica, the Closure of Radio Mercurio

Press Release

Faced with the arbitrary intervention and confiscation of the transmission equipment of Radio "Majestad SAC" by the Ministry of Transport and Communications of the city of Lima, Fiscal for the Prevention of Crimes and the Peruvian National Police last Tuesday September 30th 2008, the following needs to be said:

First: That freedom of expression and freedom of the press are inalienable rights recognized by the Political Constitution of Peru, the Convention of Human Rights and other national and international laws, as well as their full use in any form such as free opinion, reporting of injustice and irregularities, the demand for change etc. They also constitute a basic element for a country's democratic life.

Second: Part of the work of the Centre for Andean Development (SISAY) is the strengthening of citizens' organizations in Huancavelica, allowing room to govern and promoting the exercise, defence and compliance of respective human rights. Therefore the radio programs directed by our institution as well as other organizations (Frente de Defensa de Huancavelica, Bio Ritmo Periodismo Escolar directed by the student of the Francisca Diez Canseco College in Castilla, amongst others) have been using this to report the actions of regional governors and reporting irregularies including the control in the use of natural resources, which has obviously become a problem to the current authorities.

Third: Because of this it is easy to deduce that said authorities have asked the Ministry of Transport and Communications of the city of Lima to interrupt this station's broadcasts under the pretext that it is a "pirate" radio station with the name "Maxima", that is to say without licence to operate. This is not true, as the radio station was broadcasting at frequency 95.5FM under the name Radio Majestad, something that can be verified by the authors of the intervention, and that this frequency and radio station is correctly authorized via a contractual agreement. Therefore the station is clearly compliant with the law.

Fourth: Accordingly, the behaviour of the functionaries of the Ministry of Transport and Communications of Lima is both abusive and arbitrary, because even though they had a resolution with the authorization of closure, this was against Radio Máxima and not against Radio Mercurio that at the time of closure was broadcasting at frequency 95.5FM; respective legal action will therefore proceed.

Fifth: The right to free speech is generally violated in dictatorial and oppressive states, and in the present context we have been witness to an APRA government that has used this mechanism to silence the voice of the people. Apparently the regional government are supporting these acts in order to be able to govern without any type of opposition or accountability from social organizations.

BECAUSE OF THESE CONSIDERATIONS

1. We reject the arbitrary acts of the funactionaries of the Ministry of Transport and Communication
2. We reject the non-transparent attitude of local authorities.
3. We reaffirm our service to organizations and the people by broadcasting true and objective information in our information spaces

Down with Authoritarianism! Long Live Freedom of Speech!
For a free and independent press

Where's Waldo? (Peru Edition)

Yesterday Romulo Leon, the main accused party in the Petroperu corruption scandal, said that he was in his house and if the police wanted to talk with him "they know where to find me." Well today the police went round a-calling, and guess what? Yup, Romulo Leon wasn't at home. We now have the interior minister Alva Castro (again, one of the APRA inner circle...how convenient) saying that the dude won't get away. Otto politely suggests Japan as a possible place to look...after all, it has previous history as a hiding place.

Meanwhile cabinet chief Jorge MiniMe del Castillo has already had to come out and say he's met all the people involved but "it wasn't anything to do with me, honest", and those that understand how APRA works have already noted that the defendents' lawyers are in court trying to slap a habeas corpus on the whole thing and tying to prove that the recordings were made illegally so they are inadmissable evidence.

All good clean fun. But the next post on Peru will be something far more serious. Watch this space.

Today's news: Peru loses high-ranking minister in corruption scandal, rest of world yawns

Last night Peru investigative reporting program "El Cuarto Poder" played audio tapes of APRA party insider Romulo Leon and PetroPeru bigwig Alberto Quimper as they discussed the best way to make themselves a nice slice of bribery and corruption money. Between them they arranged for a foreign oil company, Discover Petroleum of Norway, to land five concession blocks in Peru.

To get the details, check out the Reuters story in English right here, but the fallout from this is that Juan Valdivia, Peru's Minister of Energy, has resigned. Quimper and his boss at PetroPeru Cesar Gutierrez have been sacked and Romulo Leon has quickly resigned as a member of the APRA party (though his daughter will continue as an APRA member of parliament no doubt. Got to keep the family tradition going...........).

The only surprising thing about all this is that these people were caught red-handed. Peru governments are never clean, but when APRA has the reins of power it becomes particularly corrupt. President Twobreakfasts is playing the indignant "we don't want these kind of people in gov't" line this morning, but anyone with the slightest idea of the wheels-within-wheels world of APRA knows full well that this shit goes on all the time and the party head trying the "oh gee shucks" is as pathetic as it is an intelligence insult.

LatAm political corruption is bit like cocaine trafficking. It's illegal, it happens, big money is made and once in a while a big consignment is intercepted and arrests are made. In Peru one packet of cocaine in ten is stopped. That sounds about the right proportion for the scum that run the wheels of power and the bribes they earn, too. So today let's all throw up our arms and say "oooh, what a terrible man!" and while we're at it, let's pretend it's going to be the last ever case of bribery, kickbacks and corruption in Peru.