Saturday, April 9, 2011

Peru: Eve of vote polling

These numbers are not allowed to be published inside Peru but have been made available to foreign journalists and commentators by the relevant polling companies. There is no margin of error nor is there the sample number given with the polls, so you just have to go with the headline numbers and be done. And sorry, no links either. So here we go with the numbers from IPSOS/Apoyo and from CPI:

Ollanta Humala 29.5%
Keiko Fujimori 21.5%
Pedro Pablo Kuczynski 20.5%
Alejandro Toledo 19.1%
Luis Castañeda 12.1%

Ollanta Humala 29.5%
Keiko Fujimori 22.1%
Pedro Pablo Kuczynski 21.5%
Alejandro Toledo 19.1%
Luis Castañeda 11.5%

UPDATE: The numbers above are good, but strangely Reuters is now quoting a different set of numbers for the IPSOS poll (they also have the sample number, 6000). Reuters goes:

Ollanta Humala 28.1%
Keiko Fujimori 21.1%
Pedro Pablo Kuczynski 19.9%
Alejandro Toledo 16.8%
Luis Castañeda not mentioned in Reuters note

UPDATE 2: More polling noise here, with Venezuela's Globovision reporting on pollster's IMASEN and its vote simulation poll today that puts Toledo in second place. It also has numbers for the CPI and Ipsos polls that are different to the above numbers. Methinks disinformation is the order of the day and that we really need to wait 24 hours to find out some solid stats before going any further. IKN signing out for Sunday.