Thursday, April 14, 2011

Great Panther Silver ( (GPL): I'm supposed to be impressed, right?

Today we had the 1q11 production numbers out of Great Panther Silver ( (GPL) and if we add them to the numbers of previous quarters, the chart gets to look like this:

Over the last two years, production has moved up a bit...a little little bit... but hardly numbers that set the world on fire despite what this stocks ever-growing legion of pumpers (both paid for and otherwise) would have you believe. However, we got great news! Luckily things are about to change bigtime at GPR, according to the management at least. Here's the guidance for 2011 and 2012, as per the last MD&A:

Great Panther’s three-year strategy to accelerate production to 3.8 million Ag eq oz by 2012 is now commencing its second year. New equipment has been delivered to the mines, new production areas are being added, plant performance continues to excel, plant capacity is being increased, resources have been increased and reserves defined, and exploration drill programs have made significant new discoveries of high grade mineralization.
The combined production target for 2011 has been set at 2.87 million Ag eq oz, consisting of 1.94 million oz silver, 11,200 oz gold, 1,170 tonnes lead and 1,430 tonnes zinc. Silver equivalents for 2011 have been established using prices of US$1,200/oz Au, US$20/oz Ag, US$0.90/lb Pb and Zn.

Good stuff eh? We're aiming for 1.94m oz Ag and 2.87m oz AgEq this year, which means the....errr....1q11 numbers of 411k oz Ag and 607k AgEq fall woefully short. But never mind because it's not as if GPR management has ever tried to bullshit the market about guidance in previous years, is it? This from the 2009 YE MD&A that set out guidance for 2010:
Great Panther has initiated its new strategy to accelerate production and increase resources at both Guanajuato and Topia. The new plan forecasts increases to 2.6 million Ag eq oz in 2010 and to 3.8 million Ag eq oz by 2012.

And in the end, GPR produced.....errr....2,255,803 oz Ag Eq in 2010...which only missed by 344,000 oz....hey, what's nearly a thousand ounces a day of underproduction between friends, anyhow?

And finally, I know nobody who pumps this way overpriced dog cares that much, but let's just point out one of the math trickeries GPR uses to set targets. This year, 2011, GPR aims for 2.87m oz AgEq and is using a gold/silver ratio (GSR) of 60:1 for its calculations. It doesn't care that the GSR is currently under 40:1. Why does this matter? It matters because for every 1000 of gold GPR produces, it's going to claim it's produced 60,000 oz of silver equivalent and will showboat the number accordingly every month. In reality, the number it should use is 40,000 oz (or even less). That kind of 'creative accountancy' really adds up over time, because as GPR is guiding to produce 11,200 oz gold in 2011, it's going to claim 672,000 oz AgEq for those gold ounces when in true money terms we're talking more like 448,000 oz. Do the math.

The market is currently telling us Great Panther Silver is worth North of half a billion dollars, according to its current market cap at least. Meanwhile, top executive insiders are selling out. I think the insiders are way smarter than the market and the ridiculous hype swirling round this overpriced, low tonnage, high cash cost dog, massive silver bull run or not. DYODD.