Thursday, October 14, 2010

Power growth in Peru

These charts document the growth (or otherwise) in electricity demand in Peru over the last three or four years, depending on the chart. First up the total demand per month, which is clearly on an uptrend.

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This next chart takes it a little deeper and shows the Year-over-Year (YOY) change in demand. It's pretty clear the recession hit the country hard, but this year the bounceback has been rapid and the previous growth trend is back on track.
click to enlarge

Things like electricity demands are far harder to fake than GDP numbers, but they follow the country's economy well enough. What the charts here say is that Peru bullshitted the world back in 2009 when it pretended not to be in recession and played fast'n'loose with the official stats to help the subterfuge. However, the country is doing well now. It also suggests that the current headline-making growth figures (GDP etc) are a one-time-only experience and as of next year, when Peru has to measure itself against the 2010 rebound, the GDP numbers won't be up there with China any longer but back to a more reasonable level. If the country can add at 5% per annum going forward, it would be a solid and likely sustainable rhythm.