Power growth in Peru

These charts document the growth (or otherwise) in electricity demand in Peru over the last three or four years, depending on the chart. First up the total demand per month, which is clearly on an uptrend.

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This next chart takes it a little deeper and shows the Year-over-Year (YOY) change in demand. It's pretty clear the recession hit the country hard, but this year the bounceback has been rapid and the previous growth trend is back on track.

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Things like electricity demands are far harder to fake than GDP numbers, but they follow the country's economy well enough. What the charts here say is that Peru bullshitted the world back in 2009 when it pretended not to be in recession and played fast'n'loose with the official stats to help the subterfuge. However, the country is doing well now. It also suggests that the current headline-making growth figures (GDP etc) are a one-time-only experience and as of next year, when Peru has to measure itself against the 2010 rebound, the GDP numbers won't be up there with China any longer but back to a more reasonable level. If the country can add at 5% per annum going forward, it would be a solid and likely sustainable rhythm.

The morons that run Peru

How much did Manhattan Island go for again?

There are many things illustrated by the following report. Just the basic point that there's no electricity supply in the region but there are multimillion dollar oil exploration contracts is enough to explain the screw you attitude of Twobreakfasts towards anyone that's small and brown and not living in the Republic of Lima.

But this story shows more: The lack of respect, of understanding.... hell, the sheer dumbass stupidity shown by Peru's government to its people. These are the ones that have no right to complain, by the way, but if they do dare to protest the arrogant, usurping nature ofAlan Garcia's Peru they are then slaughtered by police in helicopters. Now follows a direct translation of this story in El Comercio this morning:

Laptops given to Asháninka students in Junín but they have no electricity to use them

7:20am: The Regional Government gave 2,656 computers to children, but in 50 of the 73 communities there is no electricity to use them.

"Our teachers will be able to tell us about the world" says Blas optimistically, 12 years old and an Asháninka indigenous, while holding on to a personal computer that has just been handed over by state functionaries. He doesn't yet know how it works, but asks what he will do when the battery runs out.

He and 2,655 other student from 73 Asháninka communities in the Satipo region received laptop computers from the Ministry of Education and the Regional Government of Junín. "They're not toys and you have to keep them out of the rain and humidity because they can go wrong" said various children. The sad fact is that 50 of the 73 communities can't keep them running, because they have no electricity supply.

"It's true that the majority of these towns don't have electricity" the regional president Vladimir Huaroc admitted, who faced with CONTINUES HERE

That Peruvian economic miracle in numbers

Yes indeedy, a true miracle! Peru 2009 is the only country ever in the history of ever everness to have seen its electricity consumption drop and claim GDP growth. The red line shows monthly electricity demand in Peru, and especially for those tuning in from El Comercio, that broken line is what's known in the trade as "a trend line".

Hallelujah!

These jokers still claim a +0.34% GDP growth rate for Peru. Seriously, do they think we have pelotudo tattoed on our foreheads or something?

Of course, the BSsers in the Peru admin couldn't even let this moment pass without trying to massage the numbers. Even though demand was down 2.95% YoY (Jul '08 to July '09) the press releases didn't bother mentioning the important figure and decided to note only electricity production, which was down 'just' 2.4%. Hell, y'know you could produce double the amount you needed if you like*, the real pointy end of the statistics is how much is used and not how much is made. You can't stockpile a gigawatt, y'see. You need to be the obsessive numberwonk type (errr...none of them round here...ahem cough cough) and get busy on the MEM website to find the true non-spin disaster area that is Peruvian electricity consumption in all its glory.

Economic miracle? Yeah right.

UPDATE: Reader 'PV' wrote and asked about the correlation between GDP and electricity demand, so check out this chart.


It's not an exact correlation, but that mainly because monthly GDP data collection is not very accurate and in the case of Peru is affected by the number of working days compared to the same month of last year (e.g. where Easter falls will affect the monthly reading quite markedly). However, although not a perfect fit it's still not bad; it's clear that there's a correlation between the two sets of figures. Hey, I bet you can't wait for Peru's July 2009 GDP number to be announced! That'll be out mid-September and we're bound to hear Spongebob and his "we're at the bottom" baloney yet again.


*well you can't, but you could churn out an extra 10% or so

Peruvian electricity demand; the canary in the coalmine

One of the main problems I have with Peruvian economic statisticians is the amount of bullshit they feed to the market. Today's example is from the Ministry of Energy and Mines (MEM) that trumpeted this morning about its +1.7% YoY rise in electricity production in May 2009.

Production? Why should we care about production when the real important figure is the level of demand? So once again your humble correspondent is forced to wade through the headlines (that are picked up by the lazy journalistic world and spewed out to the tell-me-what-I-want-to-hear brigade) and go a huntin' and a snufflin' for the truly important numbers. And what do we find? Yes indeedy, electricity demand is flat...0.0% YoY, which follows on from the 0.8% drop in demand in April.

The thing with electricity demand is that you can't stockpile it so it really shows what's going on in a country. For sure you can oversupply the market. Pretty simple really; just leave the hydroelectric turbines running overnight on one weekend and you have a +1.7% oversupply. But you can't hide the fact that industry is running dead flat, so once again we get a bullshit headline trying to paper over a simple truth; Peru isn't growing and it matters not one jot what FinMin Liar Carranza forecasts or pontificates about his pie-in-the-sky 3.5% GDP growth. By the look of his recent 19% approval rating it seems the general population can smell his BS, too.

Chart of the day is.......

....Peru's electricity consumption for April 2005, April 2006, April 2007, April 2008 and April 2009.

Last year the YoY change was +10%, the year before +12%, both numbers fairly in line with the recorded GDP growth. So this year the negative one percent growth is another canary in the coalmine that shows the Twobreakfasts administration is lying through their teeth about supposed growth.

Peru's INEI stats office is just as bad as Argentina's INDEC. The only difference is that ten years ago Argentina was the IMF's poster boy and this time round it's Peru turn in the limelight. Hey, do you remember how Argentina finished up under the auspices of the IMF in 2001?

China Demand

Here's a chart showing the latest figures for electricity demand in China the incorporates May numbers published by Bloomie today.

Also, a must-read on the subject is this post by Yves Smith at the evergood Naked Capitalism. Interesting comments section, too.

Yes, Virginia, I'm still bearish on copper.

OT: Posting will be light today at this humble corner of cyberspace. Something will get added this evening for sure, but this may well be the last article of the trading day. Otto got family things to do chez Otto starting in about 20 minutes time (now gotta go grab that shower).

Chart of the day is.........

.....China's YoY Electricity "growth rate" (used as a very loose term) in the last three months of 2008.

Pooh's friend Eeyore has le mot juste here; "Oh dear.....oh my."

Argentina: last one to leave turn out the light, please?

For sure it'll be blamed on the weather. Today Argentina is experiencing power cuts, blackouts and brownouts all over the country, as its power supply system that has been woefully neglected by this scandalous government cannot keep up with the strain of a million air-conditioning systems turned to full. Buenos Aires hit 35c today, with a "thermal sensation" (one of the nicest direct translations I know) of 41c in the morning hours, but power cuts have been reported as far South as Ushuaia (and that's about as South as you can go on this planet without hitting icebergs).

"Please knock. No electricity" the sign on this doorbell at a house
without supply for the last 40 hours.

The Minister of Interior Planning and Kirchner hard man Julio De Vido assured the country today that there was plenty of supply for all the country, quoting peaknumbers of 18.1KMW in demand spikes and a supply maximum of 21KMW, but did say there may be a few small problems. Hah! If there's 21KMW of potential supply in Argentina I'm Chinese.

And I'm not Chinese.

This is the country run by a President that inaugurates new power plants that pretend to be functioning. Only in Argentina could they have a press conference at a new power plant and play the sound of turbines whirring in the background on a stereo to make reporters think the generators were actually doing something. You think I'm joking? It happened on March 18th 2008 and here's the link.