Venezuela's Regional Elections: What you need to know

The revolution is in your hands

Now that little vote thingy is out the way up North and the Hawaiian got the job, eyes will turn to the Venezulan regional elections on the 23rd November. Here's the essential guide:

• The vote is to elect governors for the 22 regions of Venezuela and for local seats as well.

• The press will tell you something about it being a 'test for the Chávez gov't' and attempt to whip up a polemic about how his power is fading or somesuch.

• Of the 22 regions, Chávez supporters look good for 16 wins. Two regions will almost certainly go against the gov't. Four are in the balance.

• This counters both sides' views, with the opposition saying they're good for eight or nine regions. The gov't promises (in Bloomberg expect the word "threatens" at this point) to win the whole country by landslide. Or in other words samo samo.
  

• There are eight regions that hold 70% of Venezuela's population. Unsurprisingly these are the most hotly contested.

• Chávez has been mixing it with Manuel Rosales, governor of the state of Zulia recently. This is because if Rosales loses Chávez knocks out one of his most vociferous political enemies. If Rosales wins nobody will be surprised and Chávez has nothing to lose on the deal.

• The most important point: Despite all you'll hear between now and November 23rd, NOTHING WILL CHANGE IN VENEZUELA AFTER THESE ELECTIONS.

This is a set of local elections that will be won and lost on local issues. Some guy's plan to fill in all the neighbourhood potholes will win more votes than any rallying cry around some revolutionary or counterrevolutionary flag. This is why this is IKN's last post on the regionals before results night. It really is a non-issue for anyone outside Venezuela. Sorry to disappoint.