The headline is "Real Decline in Exports Masked"(click to enlarge, Spanish language report)
Here's another exposé of the BS mathematics being used by Peru to pretend it's still growing. In its recent report, The Peru Central Bank (BCRP) admitted that export values had dropped significantly since the same time last year, but insisted that export volumes from the country has increased YoY by 0.2%. Now of course we know that export values have dropped significantly (just look at the prices for the metals), but it did seem weird that the BCRP was suggesting there's more volume traffic through Peru's ports right now, especially as anecdotal information from places like the main Callao seaport is that workers are idle and fear a round of layoffs.
So the revelation in Peru's La Republica this morning (see page above) from ace statsbuster Farid Matuk that the BCRP has been using a defunct stats baseline to calculate exports came as little surprise but welcome confirmation of the continued BS eminating from the Twobreakfasts government. According to Matuk, the BCRP uses a 1994 statistical index baseline to calculate exports, a database that was updated and made redundant in 1999 and then again in 2002. The BCRP should (if they actually cared about telling the truth) be using the 2002 dataset to make their calculations. And amazingly enough, by using the 2002 data the export volume results in a 7% drop YoY, not the 0.2% fantasy proposed by the bankers.
Still believe that Peru is "diffferent", is "armour-plated" and is "protected from the recession" like some fantasy island of love and harmony? Wanna buy that bridge of mine? The quotidian lies of the Twobreakfasts administration don't come for free, unfortunately. The ongoing deception of these people, as they try to lull Peruvians to sleep and get the world's applause as WonderCountry'09 is only pushing Peru closer to a nasty hard landing. Reality will bite eventually. It always does.
So the revelation in Peru's La Republica this morning (see page above) from ace statsbuster Farid Matuk that the BCRP has been using a defunct stats baseline to calculate exports came as little surprise but welcome confirmation of the continued BS eminating from the Twobreakfasts government. According to Matuk, the BCRP uses a 1994 statistical index baseline to calculate exports, a database that was updated and made redundant in 1999 and then again in 2002. The BCRP should (if they actually cared about telling the truth) be using the 2002 dataset to make their calculations. And amazingly enough, by using the 2002 data the export volume results in a 7% drop YoY, not the 0.2% fantasy proposed by the bankers.
Still believe that Peru is "diffferent", is "armour-plated" and is "protected from the recession" like some fantasy island of love and harmony? Wanna buy that bridge of mine? The quotidian lies of the Twobreakfasts administration don't come for free, unfortunately. The ongoing deception of these people, as they try to lull Peruvians to sleep and get the world's applause as WonderCountry'09 is only pushing Peru closer to a nasty hard landing. Reality will bite eventually. It always does.