"Be Prepared" as they say in Scouting Circles, and so the spin begins to prepare FinMin and Liar Luis Sponge Bob Carranza (that's a long name...we'll cut it down next time, don't worry) and give him an excuse as to why his 5%...no 4%...no 3.5%....no 3% GDP growth forecast is going to miss by a nautical mile.It's the swine flu, y'see.
This report on the musings of some dude named Gustavo Yamada, an economist at Universidad del Pacífico in Lima, is tailor-made for the job. Yamada has Peru missing out on no less than 1.9% of its GDP growth this year because of the wretched flu (that the Health ministry says will peak in August, for what it's worth). He also has AH1N1 as being as devastating as the El Niño weather of 1998 which sounds a bit over the top to me. Oh by the way, El Niño is back this year..should be a lotta fun!
But back to this swine flu GDP thingy, and I can't help noticing that if you subtract Yamada's 1.9% from SpongeBob's 3% forecast you end up with a number so very close to your humble servant's guesstimate made in April this year (1.28% for 2009). FinMin's probably preparing his Not my fault, sir! speech for Twobreakfasts already.
But back to this swine flu GDP thingy, and I can't help noticing that if you subtract Yamada's 1.9% from SpongeBob's 3% forecast you end up with a number so very close to your humble servant's guesstimate made in April this year (1.28% for 2009). FinMin's probably preparing his Not my fault, sir! speech for Twobreakfasts already.
