Alan Garcia has Swine Flu CORRECTED

Betcha he's regretting this 'abrazo' with Uribe now.

NOTE: THIS NEWS IS NOW UNCONFIRMED AND PROBABLY A HOAX CAUSED BY A CHAIN MAIL (pasted underneath)

The commiepinko conspiracy continues, as now both LeadersOfTheFreeWorld™ based in South America are down with AH1N1 First Uribe came down with it, now Peruvian local news station RPP reports that Twobreakfasts got da swine flu.

Confirmado Alan Garcia contagiado por gripe porcina: Ante las especulaciones que se dieron los últimos dias, se confirmó de manera oficial que el Presidente Alan Garcia contrajo la gripe AH1N1 junto con 4 miembros mas de la delegación que formo parte de la cumbre de la UNASUR en Argentina. Por mas que se trató de ocultar el hecho, y a raiz y de algunos comentarios que se dieron durante el dia en Torre Tagle no se pudo ocultar mas, y el Vice Presidente Luis Giampietro tomo la conducción del país en este dificil momento.

Además del mismo modo se confirmó que los presidentes de Bolivia y Brasil también se contagiaron de la gripe AH1N1, pero estan en proceso de recuperación, practicamente esta cumbre ha puesto en jaque a toda la región, enterese como finalmente se tuvo que hacer pública esta noticia, descargando el audio.

Uribe's plot to destabilize South America revealed

Uribe takes his Tamiflu by grinding up the pill into a
fine powder and sniffing...old habits die hard
(photo courtesy borev)

We now understand why President Alvaro Uribe of Colombia refused to attend to Ecuador UNASUR meeting but then just a couple of weeks later attended the Bariloche meeting that just ended. Uribe wanted to wait until he had a nasty case of swine flu before meeting, greeting, shaking and baking with all those commie devils that head up the other lands. So as it's now been confirmed that Uribe has AH1N1, expect other regional leaders to be confined to quarters as of this week.

And once they're all tucked up in bed part two of the CIA/Illuminati plot swings into action as Uribe leads multiple attacks using Colombian-based USAF F-16 jets to bomb every single presidential palace in South America, thus allowing the Honduran army to march in and take over the world...errrrr...I think.

Anyway, Uribe got da flu..the first part of the plan is in place.

UPDATE: Colombia Reports has the story in an English language report right here.

The South America Swine Flu Sweepstakes Update, August 15

Here's the fatalities chart as at the date:

Argentina still has plenty plenty to add to that total and is now closing in on the official world topspot (the USA has 447 though that won't last long once winter hits up North).

But this week Brazil is the big story. Its fatalities number has shot from the low 100s to over 300 in the space of a week, with 63 deaths registered in the last 24 hours (for example). There's some serious infecting going on right now in the big cities and general southern region and Brazil is catching Argentina fast. Of course there's the question of population size (there are 5X more Brazilians than Argentinians) but all the same the recent fast upmove will be cause for real concern chez Lula.

I've left Uruguay in 5th because it's lagging on official figures and trying to play dumb with its own people...dat be stoopid of dem. Peru's HealthMin says the worst of the problem is over...yeah right. In general, those countries coming to the end of their winters have had it much rougher than the tropical zones. I presume it's cold where you live in December....am I right?

Muffin Flu, anyone?

News from Ecuador is that Studmuffin's Chief of Security has come down with Da Swine Flu and now the whole presidential entourage, Prez included, is under observation for symptoms of the bug.

Thus IKN launches its "Emergency Volunteer Muffin Observer" appeal. Tell me, is anyone out there interested in closely observing President Rafael Correa for a few days? It's a morning, noon and night job, folks.

Bina, are you out there?
c

ON NOES! Oscar Arias got da Swine Flu!

It's true. According to this report, Costa Rican Prez, Nobel Peace Prize winner and currently middleman in the nothing-doing negotiations between the usurpers and the legit President in Honduras Oscar Arias is down with the bad old AH1N1 and confined to bed.

No peacemaking for you today, young man.

Oh please..please PLEASE let's hope he spent more time doing the recent one-on-ones with Micheletti than with Zelaya. Thank you reader UL for the headsup.

PS: Get well soon Oscar. For a politico you're not a bad dude.

The South America Swine Flu Sweepstakes Update Aug 8

Here's the updated chart, as at August 8th:

The big news is from Argentina this week, as the health ministry said there were 337 confirmed deaths from AH1N1, but another 400 deaths are suspected as being due to swine flu so that number is going to rocket and put Argentina waAAAay out in front of the world league table. Also...listen up, the ministry said there had been 762,711 cases of flu in the country since the outbreak started, with 93% of cases being AH1N1. Yes, that does say seven hundred and sixty-two thousand seven hundred and eleven. That's around 700,000 cases of swine flu in Argentina and 1.75% of the entire population...that's a lot.

Another snippet from the Argentine health ministry this week said 53% of death had no previous health complication (no obesity, no high blood pressure, no chronic illnesses etc), so that's another mythbuster with three months and counting for the northern hemisphere winter.

Meanwhile, deaths in Brazil have shot past Chile's total and into second place at 132, mostly reported in the cities of San Pablo (50), Paraná (25) and Rio de Janeiro (19).

Chile's fatalities break into three figures, with 12,030 registered cases.

The South American Swine Flu Sweepstakes Update July 31

Here's the updated chart:

click to enlarge

Chile hasn't updated since last Friday, so that 79 number will jump for sure...that goes for Paraguay, too. Argentina is now world number two for AH1N1 fatalities (after the USA with 302 deaths and ten times the population count). Brazilian cases are mainly in the South of the country where its not that warm this time of year. Your winter will come, northeners.

According to this report, two out of three swine flu deaths have been registered in Latin America. Want me to start singing Meat Loaf songs?

The South America Swine Flu Sweepstakes Update July 25th

Here's the fatalities chart and we're up to 390 deaths in South America.

click to enlarge, feel free to copypaste in other places

Argentina now has 197 confirmed deaths (and more in the suspecteds pipeline, for example in Cordoba there are 10 confirmed and 32 suspected). Chile's death toll jumped significantly this week to 79 confirmed. Google Argentina has opened a dedicated page to AH1N1 in Argentina.

Peru has given kids a extra week off school, thus extending the current break through to August 10th (nearly a month off when they normally get two weeks). Chile still leads with confirmed infections, up at 11,641. Argentina has stopped trying to count. Peru has 3,300 confirmed cases. Brazil chopped the number of flu deaths from 24 to 29 yesterday. Meanwhile, border towns in Uruguay are suddenly doing great business as Brazilians flock over, this because Tamiflu is only available under prescription in Brazil but is sold over the counter in Uruguay.

So how's the tourist high season going in Argentina

Take one large dose of swine flu panic, flavour with a dash of financial crisis. mix in rising unemployment and understated inflation and let's see what we have via this Spanish language report in Critica:

Mar Del Plata (Argentina's most popular coastal resort): Hotels with few reservations and low occupation rate. Buscompanies laying off drivers and subcontracted vehicles. Unlikely to break 50% occupancy rates through the winter break season. Restaurants offering cut price menus.

Bariloche (main ski resort): 50% fewer charter flights arriving from Brazil. Unofficial figures have hotel occupancy at 20%, despite good snowfalls and ski conditions.

La Leñas (number two ski resort): Foreign arrivals down 30%. More exclusive than Bariloche, officials insist that occupancies are at 95%.

Iguazú (the famous waterfalls on the Brazil border): 65% occupancies though "yesterday at 90%". People less worried about swine flu in this tropical zone. Most tourists arriving in own vehicles (approx 16 hours by road from Buenos Aires).

Córdoba (central city, popular for short breaks): "Apocalyptic panorama". "The season is lost. For us July is always the best month of the year but the (swine) flu has hit us hard, people aren't getting together and we have a lot of cancellations" says Jorge Piñiero, the president of the association of bars. Worst affected businesses are school outing and package tours.

Northwest Argentina (tourist route area from Catamarca through Tucuman, Salta and Jujuy): Occupancy rates at 66%, 15% lower than the norm. Local tourism suit Fernando García Soria says "The percentages aren't bad, considering the difficult context."

The South America Swine Flu Sweepstakes Update July 21

It's getting too difficult to do the infecteds chart, because health authorities down this way are either losing track or deliberately not publishing to stop panic. But the fatalities seem to be registered on the day and vigilantly, so here's that chart as stands the night of July 21st.

Chile now has 11,293 with AN1H1 and 68 deaths. Brazil is now moving up the deaths chart. with five fatalities on Tuesday alone. Argentina still leads this table. Venezuela has its first victim.

Worth reminding you that the figures here aren't on rumours but on the official numbers published by each country's health authority.

SpongeBob Carranza prepares his excuses

"Be Prepared" as they say in Scouting Circles, and so the spin begins to prepare FinMin and Liar Luis Sponge Bob Carranza (that's a long name...we'll cut it down next time, don't worry) and give him an excuse as to why his 5%...no 4%...no 3.5%....no 3% GDP growth forecast is going to miss by a nautical mile.

It's the swine flu, y'see.

This report on the musings of some dude named Gustavo Yamada, an economist at Universidad del Pacífico in Lima, is tailor-made for the job. Yamada has Peru missing out on no less than 1.9% of its GDP growth this year because of the wretched flu (that the Health ministry says will peak in August, for what it's worth). He also has AH1N1 as being as devastating as the El Niño weather of 1998 which sounds a bit over the top to me. Oh by the way, El Niño is back this year..should be a lotta fun!

But back to this swine flu GDP thingy, and I can't help noticing that if you subtract Yamada's 1.9% from SpongeBob's 3% forecast you end up with a number so very close to your humble servant's guesstimate made in April this year (1.28% for 2009). FinMin's probably preparing his Not my fault, sir! speech for Twobreakfasts already.

The South America Swine Flu Sweepstakes Update July 18

Here's the updated chart:

Click to enlarge

Chile breaks the 10,000 barrier. Nobody's really sure how many cases there are in Argentina, but the official number is 3,056 as at July 13th so we're going with that even though it's almost certainly way more. Peru now has 2,503 cases and 12 deaths, which is an infection-to-death ratio about 10X lower than the fatties in Argentina with 155 dead.

Paraguay and Uruguay are fudging their numbers. Uruguay has 19 dead but won't say how many confirmed cases there are, only saying there are "40 outbreaks", many in schools. President Tabaré Vasquez last night appealed for calm. Paraguay with 8 dead says there are only 164 confirmed cases but also 1,728 suspected cases. As so often, the truth lies somewhere in between.

I made a mistake in the last update and said that every single South American state now has a fatality. Reader 'S' pointed out to me that Venezuela has missed the bullet so far. Let it stay that way. So anyhow, as countries down this way are beginning to count fatalities more accurately than infection cases here's a new chart:

click to enlarge

It's pretty clear that the southern cone is being affected far more than the tropical North of the continent, so watch out northern hemisphere...your winter will come.

Argentina: Just a little reminder every now and again.....

...is enough to realize just how dumbass its politicos really are.

I try to ignore Argentina as much as possible on the blog these days because it's just too silly. For some it's difficult to explain just how a country that has everything necessary for human development, virtually unlimited water supply, most flavours of climate but for the most part very clement and agreeable weather all year round, vast tracts of fertile land, hydrocarbons for all, friendly people etc etc etc can be so screwed up. But just check out the people that have been running the shop for the last 20....no, 30....no, 100 years and the answer is pretty simple in the end.

Today's small example comes from the mouth of President Klishtina. It's only a little thing but it's enough to keep me on track and as far away as possible from bizarro circus numero uno. The subject was swine flu (AH1N1 still sounds so boring next to the original name) and the fact that 137 people were yesterday confirmed as fatalities in Argentina, a big jump from the weekend's 92. Klishtina said:

"I'm not worried that Argentina is second in the mortality rankings because it's the only (country) that really counts its figures (correctly)."

And y'know what? After living in the country for several years, I can assure you that the BS coming from her mouth will be believed by the majority of Argentines. Not because they trust her over the World Health Organization, or Chile's health service or that of the UK, or France or whatever else. The reason is that the average Argentine has absolutely no idea about what goes on outside their own country apart from the European soccer leagues or the odd 'bleeds-it-leads' accident that gets picked up from CNN. She tells her descamisados that Colombians paint themselves blue for a couple of months every year and it'd get debated in Porteño coffee houses the next morning.

And as for the thought of Argentina being some paragon of statistical collection....ahhh, just wonderful.

Avoid sillycountries.

The South America Swine Flu Sweepstakes Update 13 July

Here's the chart (and as I've been asked a couple of times, for those who wish feel free to copy and use elsewhere, no problems and no need to write in):

Click to enlarge

Sadly, it might be time to stop counting the infected and start a new fatalities chart, with nearly 100 deaths in Argentina, 26 in Chile and smatterings over all corners of the continent, even the bits that don't get a real winter. All countries on the list have at least one fatality to their names and the region total is now 151 (94 in Argentina).

Argentina took delivery of 100,000 "anti-flu kits" on Friday and another 400,000 on Sunday (from Switzerland...nice people) and the government seems to be reacting..finally. However, the officially confirmed 2,928 cases may be way behind reality, with some health people quoting 19,700 infections throughout the country right now.

Brazil has broken into 4 figures. Bolivian health authorities are talking about 27,000 infections over the next 12 months. Peru is now panicking and the traditional midwinter school break that happens end July/beginning August has been brought forward and now starts July 15th.

Swine Flu: Argentines pay for being fat bastards

Argentine trivia: Name this famous actor

Background: Your typical Porteño (resident of Buenos Aires city) eats about 46 squillion times more meat than the rest of the continent. Smoking is very common in the city. As for alcohol, we're in France-like consumption of wines, with spirits and beer just as popular. Then add the pizza culture, their love of 'dulces' and what you have is one very unhealthy diet which is reflected in the number of gutlords you see marchin' in the streets.

Cut to the topic: There have been 82 deaths from Swine Flu (or AH1N1 if you insist) in Argentina so far, way above the rest of the region. The vast majority of those deaths are in the Buenos Aires region. Now check out this Bloomie report (yep, seems to be Bloomie day today...dunno why).

July 10 (Bloomberg) -- An unexpected characteristic has emerged among many swine flu victims who become severely ill: They are fat.

Doctors tracking the pandemic say they see a pattern in hospital reports from Glasgow to Melbourne and from Santiago to New York. People infected with the bug who have a body mass index greater than 40, deemed morbidly obese, suffer respiratory complications that are harder to treat and can be fatal.

With the new virus on a collision course with the obesity epidemic, the World Health Organization says it’s gathering statistics to confirm and yada yada continues here

Death by parrillada, anyone?

The South America Swine Flu Sweepstakes Update 10 July

Here's the updated chart. As always, click it to make it bigger if needed.

The latest from Argentina is 70 dead, another 15 probably dead from AH1N1 and the country is taking Friday off to make a long, four day weekend to help stop the spread of the disease. We also have an opposition that is accusing the government of understating the true figures. I dunno 'bout dat, but there surely are plenty of cases, both in Argentina and the rest of the world, where the sick person just goes "yeah, I got the bug" and stays at home for three days without bothering people. Meanwhile, the country is reportedly "paralyzed", with photos in Clarin this week of about a dozen people in my personal favourite lunchtime joint in downtown Buenos Aires when there are usually at least 350 people milling round and trying to catch the waiters' attention. Very weird. Also, Spanish speakers shouldn't miss this report on the feeling in the city regarding the flu. Great piece of atmosphere reporting.

Peru scores its 3rd fatality and 1,331 infected. Bolivia is now cancelling events like concerts and footy matches. Paraguay has just declared a state of health emergency. Chile still leads but doesn't crap itself in public like other countries...I could never live there...not Latino enough.

The South America Swine Flu Sweepstakes Update

Here's the updated chart, with 14,071 officially confirmed cases in South America (but don't worry, plenty more to come):

click to enlarge

The main news is that Argentina is officially crapping itself. The are now 60 confirmed deaths from AH1N1 in the country and another dozen are likely to be added to the list tomorrow according to the health people. Also ever since last week when the new Health Minister was stupid enough to tell people the truth and Argentina is staring at 100,000 infections before this all dies down, Argentine nerves have been shot to hell.

Chile still a mile ahead of course, and as that 8,160 figure hasn't been updated for 48 hours we can expect a bunch more soon. Peru has snatched 3rd place back from Brazil and passes into 4 figures. Peru has also registered its first two deaths from the thing. Bolivia has shot from nowhere to move into 5th place, most cases being in Santa Cruz. Uruguay isn't telling the truth any more. Finally, to put a bit of context on the latest numbers here is the chart from one month ago, June 7th

Basically tenfold in 30 days. Wow.

Swine Flu: A little perspective

My best pal in Argentina wrote today and told me his wife's pregnant with their second child. This is great and I'm really happy for them, but he then told me how worried they are about the swine flu outbreak down there, what with pregnancy being a vulnerable moment for two souls, not just one. Then I saw this report today and wow!, look at the coverage all those pro-Peru journalists and commentators give this story.

Perhaps one day this might change; y'know if somebody with a voice loud enough to be heard cared enough to whip up a bit of hysteria about the fact that a country that boasts and brags about its GDP growth rate can't be bothered to look after its poorest citizens.

Viva investment grade. Viva, viva, viva.

The South America Swine Flu Sweepstakes Update 27th June

Here's the updated chart.

Click to enlarge

Chile stretches its lead again, to 6211 cases. Argentina zooming up towards 2,000 now and already has 26 deaths from the disease...plenty of McDs in Buenos Aires, folks. Peru has just put on a spurt and added 100 cases in the last 24 hours, but still can't peg back Brazil for third place.

Meanwhile, down at the foot of the table Colombia has added just 3 cases in the last few days and sinks to the bottom. No winter + no addiction to fast food = living la vida loca. Frankly you have more chance of dying from false positiveness than you do from the pandemic.

The South America Swine Flu Sweepstakes Update June 23

Here's the new chart, folks.

Click to enlarge

Uruguay finally released its figures and has jumped right up the chart with 195 cases. But biggest mover is Brazil, scoring 94 cases in just one day (Monday) and snatching third place from Peru.

Runaway leader Chile hasn't updated its numbers for a few days, so that 4,315 is surely higher by now. UPDATE; 10 minutes after publishing Chile came out with its new number, 5,186 cases....the chart above has been updated. Reports in Chilean media now talk about "collapsed health services" with the number of cases (and suspected cases) swamping hospital staff. Happy days.