Friday, February 12, 2010

The US dollar and gold (and how they may be related)

Look carefully and you might be able to spot a pattern :-)

But it's perhaps more interesting to look at the weekly candles of the USD and Gold futures next to each other.

Three thoughts that spring to mind:

1) Since that December peak, gold has dropped from $1,180/oz (excluding the spike up) to the current $1,087/oz and the dollar has risen from 74.8 (excluding the spike down) to 80.5. In percentage terms, gold is down 7.88% and the dollar index is up 7.62%.

2) People actually bother to track the supply and demand stats for gold? Are they mad? They need to get out more, or find some other dataset to follow, or work for charity instead. Gold is inverse dollar, dollar is inverse gold, the rest is noise. Gold is not affected by the wider commodities market forces for a very simple reason; it's not a commodity, it's an asset class.

3) The dollar is still daddy and all things, gold included as just one example, revolve around it like planets around the greater sun. It may be a basic statement but it's worth saying and like it or not, you're silly to ignore reality.