Wednesday, March 24, 2010

Peru growth: It didn't take long for the Kool-Aid to start flowing

Just the other week in this post, your humble scribe rounded off a look at the state of Peru imports and exports (the lifeblood of the country's growth) by saying:
A recovery is on? Yes no doubts, with that steady climb in imports underlying the good news. Anything better than 2007 or 2008? Nope. So next time the headlines scream the Kool-Aid at you, remember the real context of the "growth" figures that you'll see out of Peru this year.
And yep, it's already started. The Goebbels method of "tell em enough times and they'll believe it" is spearheaded by the numbskulls at Northern Miner with this headline from yesterday:

Peru's Mining Growth And Pains

LIMA, PERU -- While much of the rest of the world struggles to put last year's economic slowdown behind it, Peru has been surging ahead with almost Chinese-levels of growth.

Sorry, no link because NM have the temerity to charge subscriptions and use firewalls for their uninformed pumpjobs. But don't worry, you're not missing anything by reading the heap of guff on offer there. I mean, even if we take the Northern Miner's moronic parameters and check actual facts.....
....Peru doesn't stack up, not even close. Have you ever wondered what an economic hard-landing looks like in chart form? Check that red line above. And the only time Peru has got near China in the last ten years was the overheated 2008 that led the country straight over the cliff.

So Northern Miner, you win this week's coveted award. Two choices for you fools in the future; either check facts before opening mouths or just take the advice and