Friday, March 19, 2010

Uranium: Is that a bottom?


Remember Uranium (in its U308 form), the commodity you can't hoard (well, apparently there are a couple of places in the world, but capacity is very limited compared to true end-user demand)? We featured it a while back with the very same comment on how it was behaving differently to oil, copper etc ad infin. Since then it just dropped further.

But these last two weeks, the spot price for U308, though a very thinly traded contract, has clicked up a couple of spots, marking the first time in a long time that U308 has managed to add price two weeks running. Add that to the shape of the above chart, as if we ignore that very silly speculative bubble the U$40/lb level does seem to have that bottomish look about it.

U308 is one to watch, folks. For one thing it might give us a better idea of the rebound in true demand (cos the dumbass suits in London can't take delivery and store a tonne of yellowcake under their desks without worrying what it'll do to their sex life) and secondly cos there are a whole bunch of beaten down junior U plays that might just give us a trade or two going forward. I'm not talking about the cruddy ones; there are literally hundreds of those in the U sphere. I'm talking the true quality U plays that have been thrown out baby/bathwater style and haven't caught a bid since then. Not talking the very few market hotpots like HAT.v or FIS.v either.

So keep an eye on the U308 price. I'm not buying in yet, but if u308 gets past $50 or so it may be time to rootle around and add a bargain price or two to the port. DYODD.