Parsing the Venezuelan National Assembly election results; JFS does a great job

Hemispheric Brief is the place to go to get a very good analysis of results (so far) from the hand of Joshua Frens-String. He notes the spin put on the results from all sides, cuts through the crud and comes to some decent conclusions after balancing all sides' views. Highly recommended reading, go here to read it yourself.

Living (and dying) Peru's election campaigns

News through from the Huánuco region highland Peru today regarding the campaigning style used for those wishing to be elected mayor of the local towns.

The Town in question is Chacabamba and as part of his re-election campaign, current mayor Vidal Figueroa decided in all his wisdom to run a "Who can drink more than me?" competition as part of his vote-winning push, with a S/150 (U$53.50) prize put up for grabs to the person who could drink the most hard liquor during the allotted time. There were 10 competitors and the winner turned out to be 50 year old local Hernando Lorenzo. Having claimed his prize, Lorenzo then went home and that same night died in his sleep due to the effects of the copious amounts of alcohol in his body, according to the official autopsy. Five other competitors were also hospitalized for the effects of alcohol poisoning.

This photo was taken of Lorenzo leaving his house next morning. He won't be able to vote for the Mayor, being dead and that. The mayor is now under investigation, orders of the local DA. 

Brazil's Presidential election: Dilma Leads!

Here's a slightly edited excerpt from IKN60, out yesterday.

Brazil’s latest Presidential opinion poll

On June 26^th (i.e. yesterday), the first survey was published (13) giving Worker Party (PT) candidate Dilma Rousseff an outright lead in the opinion polls for the November Presidential election. CNI/Ibope called voter intention for Rousseff, heiress apparent in Lula’s PT, at 40%, with main opposition candidate José Serra at 35%. A long way behind in third comes Green Party candidate Marina Silva with 9% of voter intention. Margin of error on the poll was put at +/- 2%.

This chart shows the evolution of voter intention over the last nine months and the clear dynamic is that of a growth in support for Dilma Rousseff while Serra’s numbers have remained basically pat.

Colombia's Presidential Election Run-Off: The polls

Here according to notimex is how three of the main polling firms in Colombia are calling the June 20th run-off election for Colombia's presidency:

Maybe we shouldn't read these people too much and trust them considering the total pig's ear they made of the first round predictions, but really it'd now be a gargantuan surprise to see Santos beaten out by Mockus. Meanwhile, those versed in the language of Cervantes should link through to this interview of Santos in Colombia's daily El Tiempo, as it's pretty good and has the dude saying conciliatory things about everyone except Mockus. Even Chávez gets a fair hand, but it remains to be seen if the soon-to-be President Santos keeps the diplo about him when he takes over from his bossman.

Colombia Election early results

The polls closed just under one hour ago and we already have 31.9% of the votes counted that show:

Juan Manuel Santos has 46.8% of votes
Antanas Mockus has 21.43% of votes

We're told that by 8pm local time (9pm New York time) around 90% of votes are expected to have been counted. We'll update this post as the evening progresses.

UPDATE: The scores are now 46.64% Santos, 21.61% Mockus, 10.35% Vargas, 9.47% Petro, 5.75% Sanín with 72% tallied in what's called the "precount" (i.e. official quick count and supposedly very accurate forecast). If you're interested in helping crash the official website, the link is here.

UPDATE 2: Now 79.86% of the precount done, with 46.54% Santos, 21.68% Mockus, 10.33% Vargas, 9.38% Petro, 5.86% Sanín. It has to be said that these numbers are very different from all opinion polls carried out pre-election that had Santos and Mockus in a technicial dead heat for the last two weeks of campaigning (here's the link to charts showing the last set of main polls from last Sunday). Let's just leave it at that for the time being.

UPDATE 3: 91.8% of the precount is now done and I think we've got the picture by now: 46.57% Santos, 21.55% Mockus, 10.24% Vargas, 9.22% Petro, 6.05% Sanín. There are going to be a lot of questions asked about this vote, not least from the observers that have already made observations of irregularities.

UPDATE 4: We'll make this the last update, as with 95.34% the result is now all-but set in stone. 46.58% Santos, 21.50% Mockus, 10.19% Vargas, 9.18% Petro, 6.11% Sanín.

Mo' Colombia: Of drugs and lovers

A must-read on the upcoming senate elections in Colombia is to be found on this link to the excellent English language resource, Colombia Reports. Here's how it starts, click through for the rest:

Senate candidate: My campaign is financed by 'faggot' not drugs

Monday, 25 January 2010 12:11 Adriaan Alsema

A Senate candidate for the newly founded ADN party denied allegations that he is sponsored by drug money, claiming on Monday that "a faggot from South Africa who is in love with me is sending me money." ADN, the party of former Colombian ambassador to South Africa and current senatorial candidate Carlos Moreno de Caro, has been criticized for the large number of candidates who have family members under investigation for links to paramilitaries. According to continues here

Chile Election commentary

Fed up with the pap and crap served up by the media newswires? Yeah me too, so if you want to read about the unfolding election in Chile, want it in snappy, bite-sized pieces and want the person writing the words to actually know what he's talking about, check out Robert L Funk's blog today as he seems to be doing one of those liveblogging event thingies.

Here's the link.

Bolivia Election count update (and best ever photo of Evo)

Last night the official Bolivian votey countey people announced the MAS party (i.e. Evo Morales) with 59% of the votes with a touch over half of all ballot papers counted (51% to be exact). This 59% is bound to go up due to the way Evo is more popular in those rural areas that get counted last, so the original exit poll calculations of around 63% look like being an accurate reflection. It should take the rest of the week before we get a final result. UPDATE Thursday AM: The official tally is now 63% Morales with 78% of votes counted.

Meanwhile, check out this photo of Evo by The New Yorker's house snapper, Platon. It comes from this article that has 50 full face portraits of world leaders by the photographer and is well worth a visit, especially for the audio comments from the photographer about each photo and how it was taken (don't miss the Chávez or the Uribe commentaries), but in my humble opinion (and that of the reader who gave me the original headsup, who we'll call 'M'), the Evo photo is one great portrait.

click to enlarge (gets big)

Regarding voter fraud

Here's a question for you: Why does the USA get all hot and bothered about voter fraud in Iranian elections but totally ignores the most blatant vote rigging and number manipulation possible when it comes to the joke election in Honduras?

"Honduran coup regime's claims about 60% turnout at free and fair elections is revealed as fraud. Also implicated in the video are the wide array of media outlets and governments that have unquestioningly accepted the electoral data of a regime that overthrew the last elected president."

This Real News Network video blows the lid off the affair in this must watch 12 minute report. Hat tip delacour at LANR.

The Bolivia Elections, as seen by the people who want to you be free-thinking and democratic in that special certain way

The title of this post is longer than the contents, as all I'd like to do is send you over to a magnifico article at Abiding, where the dude has had the intestinal fortitude to have waded through all the guff and nonsense written about tomorrow's vote by the media.

Duderino totally pwns Bolivian media coverage. Go over to see why.

The Honduras Embassy in the USA wants to make a point

This is my translation of the original Spanish language poster below, taken from the Honduras Embassy in USA website. HT to Honduras Oye.

English translation

Spanish original.

Say NO to farcical elections. Boycott November 29. Refuse to recognize this affront to democracy.

José Mujica, possible first round winner in Uruguay

José Alberto Mujica Cordano is a dead cert for the new President of Uruguay. The only question left is whether he wins in the first round or the run-off, as right now the first exit polls from today's election have him right on the edge of a round one win with 50% of the vote.

Just goes to show that even a cop killer can get to the top these days. What? They didn't tell you that when he used to go under the pseudonym 'Emiliano' in his more militant days he shot dead a police officer by putting seven bullets in his back?

Strange how these things get forgotten, isn't it?

UPDATE: Tough to call accurately, but it looks most likely that there will be a 2nd round run off in November. Mujica is polling slightly under the 50% he needs to seal it at this stage. Rightwing Luis Lacalle will face off with him and is currently polling 305 or so.

My how times change

Portrait of the fascist as a young man

The younger bundle of fun pictured above is a Chilean named Rodrigo García Pinochet, grandson of the older dude in the photo who you might recognize. Yeah that's right, the one who took over his country, put a bullet through the head of its elected president and then proceeded to rid the country of those troublesome lefties in the most efficient manner he knew. I mean, no point paying for prison cells when there are unmarked mass graves as an alternative, eh? In the name of democracy, of course.

Anyway, I digress. Mini-Pin8, this Rodrigo dude, is all upset and bothered because he's all grown up now and wants to carry on the family tradition of .....errrr...democracy?.....but his far-right wing political party won't let him stand as a candidate for Chile's parliament in the upcoming elections. Rodrigo said yesterday:

"I have no doubt that if my grandfather were alive (the party) would be giving me all its support."

Well yeah, Roddy. I think that's the whole point. They don't feel like the next possible murder victim these days so they can say what they really think, not just piss their pants and cave in to pieces of shit like you and your family. Even the far-righties are eschewing Pinochet these days....damn, there is hope for the future.

FARC, Correa and a video

This youtube video is the talk of Colombia and Ecuador this evening and comes from this report.

What it seems to show is the FARC leader 'Mono Jojoy' talking to his troops just after the death of Tirofijo Marulanda, but the explosive information it holds is the part where Jojoy clearly says that the FARC contributed funds for the presidential election campaign of Rafael Correa.

There are no English subtitles and the Spanish is not super-clear so it's really only for those proficient in the language right now, but I've played over the key part several times (minute 3:10 onwards of the 4.14 youtube) and although we don't get the context of the sentence from the moment before Jojoy takes his drink, he clearly says:

"...y ayuda en dolares a la campaña de Correa y posteriores conversaciones con sus emisarios..."

...which translates as;

"...and help in dollars for the Correa campaign and subsequent conversations with his representatives...."

So, here we go with the next scandal, folks. They are never too far in the future down this way.

UPDATE: Ecuador's Interior Minister Miguel Carvajal is reported here as saying:

"We have to verify if the video is real and not a fake. If it is real, the FARC will need to be asked the names of the people they gave money to, because neither the País Movement (Correa's party) or the government has asked for or received money from the FARC."

Argentines are good at hacking

When on the campaign trail last month, Nestor Kirchner had quite a few pops at Argentina's best-selling daily newspaper, Clarin. There's no love lost between the two sides and his catchphrase was "¿What's up, Clarin..are you nervous?" in allusion to the beating he'd give his enemies at the polls on June 28th.

So last night some geek hacked into the main Peronist (PJ) party website and although the page is now down (click thru and get 404 right now) we got the screenshot. Here's the message left on the front page for all to see (translated underneath).

What's up Nestor, are you nervous?

What you reap is what you sow....

Sincerely

The Republic (goodbyekirchner (AT) gmail (DOT) com)

PS: What's up Nestor, have you been hacked?

Chart of the day is.....

...the results for the Buenos Aires lower house elections, with 90% of ballots counted.

Nestor Kirchner conceded defeat last night with 87% or so of ballots counted. "We lost by very little", he said. That might be so, but the defeat was a shock and marks the end of the Kirchner's governmental rule in Argentina.

As well as watching Kirchner lose out to Francisco de Narváez, we saw the Kirchner's "FPV" (front for victory) party, part of the wider PJ umbrella, lose absolute control in the lower and upper house.

Winners last night were Carlos Reutemann, who won through in Santa Fe and will now make his run at the top job in 2011. Equally, Veep Julio Cobos (often known by his second name 'Cleto') won well in his Mendoza province and will make a run at the top job in 2011. Finally, via De Narváez, Mauricio Macri, Mayor of the city of Buenos Aires, is now in a strong position to make his move.

Argentina's weekend election

"The famous arrogance of the Argentines does have
its ups and down, of course. Sometimes they believe
themselves to be the most important in Latin America
and sometimes merely the most important in the world."
Les Luthiers*

Argentina goes to the polls this weekend in its parliamentary elections. Up for grabs are about half the seats in the Deputies chamber (lower house) and about a third in the Senate (upper house). I haven't mentioned much about the election on the blog in the build-up to the big day. The decision not to cover the hoo-hah has been deliberate, even though I've been following the media coverage closely. The reason is that although it's a stern test for the Kirchner wing of the Peronist PJ party and there are some (for Argentina) semi-important to not-so-important side issues such as the battle for the left (Solanas vs Carrio) and the rise of the right in Buenos Aires Capital (Macri and Co)....it's really not that important a vote.

This despite what they might believe in Argentina, of course. Today we have this report quoting one of the leading "Mothers of Plaza de Mayo" (the mothers of the disappeared association) Hebe de Bonafini as she calls on people to vote pro-Kirchner:

"This Sunday we cannot make a mistake. Our future and the future of our children depends on what happens over the next few days in the country, but also the direction that Latin America will take depends on it."

This is the typical Argentine bullshit, of course. It's very tough to make them believe that they don't matter in the great scheme of things, so rather than report all the claptrap these last weeks (the above is pretty typical, by the way) I've just ignored it. Let 'em vote, get it done, goodbye.

*If you don't know who 'Les Luthiers' are, you don't know what you're missing.

Panama: Good news and bad news about the new Prez

It was a normal kind of LatAm campaign
(Martinelli centre...DUH)

Ricardo Martinelli, for the right-leaning "Democratic Change" party (original, huh?) has tonight been elected as the new President of Panama with around 60% of the popular vote.

The Good News
He's already a multimillionaire so he won't feel the need to line his own pockets.

The Bad News
Dunno yet, but it'll come....it'll come.

Anyway, congrats to the rich dude and I hope he looks after his country. The job starts July 1st. Mojitos served.

In case you haven't heard.........

........Studmuffin won.

Studmuffin celebrates the fact he has the best
dress sense in any leader not named Michelle

Polls have him projected to get 54% or 55% of the vote (it'll take a while to get the definitive tally, Ecuador is as Ecuador does) but the final final total will be a detail. More importantly he's the first Ecuador Prez to be voted into the job on the first round of voting since democracy came back to Ecuador, which is no mean achievement in a country famous for chucking out their heads of state before time.

I had a quick search for the worst coverage of his victory in the English language this morning. My interim winner is The Washington Times, who managed to squeeze in the flagging economy, the "volatile Andean country" and the NATCH! reference to being a Chávez-lovin' lefty in just 122 words. More cringeworthy coverage of the region, eh? ¡Que sorpresa! Here it is in full.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

ECUADOR

Correa expected to win re-election

DURAN | Ecuadoreans voted Sunday in an election that incumbent President Rafael Correa was expected to win easily, even as the economy flags, because of solid support for his welfare programs.

Polling stations were busy into the afternoon across the volatile Andean country of 14 million people that is known as much for toppling presidents as its Galapagos Islands and remote Amazon tribes.

A Correa win would confirm him as the most powerful leader in Ecuador's 30-year-old democracy and mark another victory for a generation of left-wing presidents like Venezuelan Hugo Chavez who govern many countries in the region.

An early exit poll seen by Reuters on Sunday gave Mr. Correa 56 percent of the vote and a 27-point lead over his nearest rival.

Chile's Presidential race: Getting hotter by the minute

Pamela Jiles is a well-known journalist and TV personality in Chile. She spoke out against Pinochet back when it was dangerous to do so and these days she's often found on TV chat shows railing against the showbiz gossip circuit, so just those two things get her approval Chez Otto. However, she's also taken it upon herself to run in this year's presidential elections as an outside, independent candidate and even though she's polling very low she managed to get her face on every front page in Chile today with the photoshoot she staged for the cameras.

Dressed in military garb and smoking a far cigar, she posed for the cameras outside Chile's presidential palace with a blonde topless girl draped around her "suggestively". Check out one of the shots for yourself at this report in Chile's La Cuarta or here's a page with a video of the whole thing (by the way, I made a decision early on not to have nekkid photos on IKN, not cos I'm a prude but cos there are a zillion other interwebnetpipes pages to choose from...so why bother?).

Before the election campaign/successful publicity stunt/soft porn shoot was broken up by police, Jiles explained to the crowd (that assembled very quickly) that it was all to draw attention to the marginalized people of Chile, which is 95% of the population according to her. It was also to draw particular attention to the sexual minorities of Chile, as the photoshoot was baptized "ambiguities" by the snapper.

So congrats for making it to IKN, Jiles. Yet another sexed-up presidential candidate hits South America.