Chile helps Chile

Last night, Chile put on a Telethon called "Chile Ayuda a Chile" (Chile helps Chile) to raise money for the victims of its terrible earthquake and managed to raise the impressive sum of U$60m during the evening. Check out this video of Chilean popstar Américo singing a big hit from 2009 (down this end of the world at least) "que levante la mano" and those with an eye for Latino celebrities will see plenty of well-known Chilenos in the background helping out the effort (easy ones are Cecilia Bolocco and Ivan Zamorano)

But the best shots come from the couple of times the camera cuts to the audience, where you'll see President Michelle Bachelet and President Elect Sebastian Piñera getting their boogie on.

IKN joins in the shout of ¡Fuerza Chile!

Chile earthquake: President Bachelet speaks

Michelle has just appeared on "cadena nacional" TV in Chile to inform on the earthquake. Here's the video (she starts at minute 1:09).

It's Spanish-only this time folks, but noted are some of the figures used of 214 dead, 15 missing, around 2 million people affected, half a million homes damaged and hospitals, airports etc damaged and out of action, but nobody will really have a full idea of the losses for another 48 to 72 hours.

The UNASUR Bariloche Summit: What you need to know

Barrick and Pascua Lama: Munk and Borg's lobbying pays off

photo source

In the last couple of weeks, both Argentine and Chilean press reported that Peter Munk and Vince Borg of Barrick (ABX) met with the countries' respective presidents (Klishtina and Michelle) to try and get the company's massive but expensive and environmentally complicated Pascua Lama gold project moving.

The sticking point of the project that straddles both countries high up in the Andes has been the tax regime, but it seems that the three parties have come to a broadstroke agreement. Here's Reuters with the info:

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SANTIAGO, April 29 (Reuters) - Chilean tax authorities reached a deal late Tuesday with their counterparts in Argentina over tax issues related to Barrick Gold's (ABX.TO) Pascua Lama gold project, but said some minor issues remain to be resolved.

Pascua Lama, one of the world's last known mega-gold finds, is located about 5,500 meters (18,000 feet) above sea level and holds a treasure trove of some 18 million ounces of gold. It is also one of the world's largest silver deposits.

Chile's tax authority said the tax issues were agreed upon at a meeting in Buenos Aires on Tuesday.

"During the meeting, a deal was reached to resolve tax issues related to transborder services and some others that remained outstanding," Chile's tax authority said in a statement.

CONTINUES HERE

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So what to expect from here? Tough to say how it will pan out right now, to be honest. The whole thing certainly isn't cut'n'dried and done with and I'm anticipating a mix of the following

1) Enviro protesters ramping up their voices in opposition. To be honest they have a case, here. Details can be found all over the interwebnetpipes via that Google thingy, but I'd strongly suggest you read both sides of the argument and not swallow either sides' propaganda whole.

2) Argentina and Chile will likely get bogged down in the unspecified details, as this saga has been going on all decade and there's no reason to suspect that today's announcement declares a final definitive accord. LatAm is as LatAm does and you'd be wise to remember that.

3) Barrick will do the pipes and whistles on the news in the next few days.

That's just three personal ideas and there will be a lot more thrown into the mix, for sure. My personal bottom line on this is witout particular opinion, but I'm a keen observer of the issue and will be watching the developments going forward. However for those looking for an investemnt angle on this news, take a good look at International Royalty Corp (IRC.to) (ROY) as it has a chunk of the revenue stream of Pascua Lama and is trading at low levels right now. You'll probably get more bang-per-buck playing the latent behind-the-scenes royalty holder than ABX itself. But make sure you DYODD dude, as I own IRC.to in my long-term never-touch-it portfolio.

LatAm Presidential Popularity: Full Chart Rundown

We haven't done an update on this for a while, so as the new Mitofsky poll of polls for regional presidential approval ratings was published this week (here's the link to the Spanish language PDF) and we have the Summit of the Americas on the event horizon it's as good a time as any.

Here's the full table, all colour-coded for your dee lek tay shun. The base source for the ratings is the Mitofsky report, but I've also added the latest updates from Angus Reid Monitor (example, Bachelet's recent 62.1% polling from last weekend). Click the chart to expand it if necessary and feel free to swipe it for your own blog, website or whatever (but a h/t this time, please guys, yeah?):

click to enlarge

So now a few selected OttoComments:

• Lula: He is Yoda. The end.

• Uribe: It's high but it's also dropping. NastyBrutishAndShort was polling 80+% this time last year. It's the economy, stupid.

• Calderón: Must be really annoying Lopez "legit" Obrador by polling so well. He's been surprisingly likeable in his first two-and-a-bit years, in fact. An example of the 'art of the possible' definition of politics.
  

• Chávez: Amazing how the Venezuelan majority opinion gets lost in translation via the English media, innit? Media bias is one thing, but ignoring the views of almost 2/3rds of Venezuelans is nothing short of disgraceful.
  

• Bachelet: Probably the best recent performance. Michelle was in the low 40s this time last year. Chileans are going to miss this quality head of state when her time is up at end 2009. We like Michelle, yay!
  

• Correa: Studmuffin wins April 26th. Nuff said.

• Lugo: Very likely to drop in the near future, all things considered.

• Morales: Steady as she goes, he always polls high 50s.

• Ortega: Low at 38% but was a lot lower. Notable that when this ratface STFUs and gets on with the job in hand he gets better numbers. The world would still be better off without him, though.

• García: The man least likely to go on hunger strike in THE WHOLE WORLD. Amazing how outsiders think Twobreakfasts is doing a good job in Peru. The man is a disaster.

• Klishtina: Ugh. She deserves less and is going to get hammered at the polls in June.

Chile, interest rates, inflation, Bachelet and the central bank

Bachelet proves she can maintain her composure and smile
even in the most difficult of circumstances

President Bachelet gave a very interesting interview to Chile's Radio Cooperativo on Wednesday. Part of the show was devoted to the question of interest rates, as the analytical world and their spouses all say that Chile's central bank is about to cut the rate by 0.5% (it's currently at 8.25%) in order to stimulate growth (or so the theory goes). Anyhow, here are a few direct quotes from Bachelet in that interview after being subjected to the OttoTrans™:

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"Inflation is in full retreat and I understand that this will be a criteria that the Central Bank is going to evaluate when defining its interest rates policy.....this is what I hope for, although I am respectful of the Central Bank's autonomy, but I believe that the numbers we're seeing augur well for some good decisions."

"The only good news at the moment, from the point of view of economic future is that expectations and estimates of the experts say we are going to end 2009, some say, with inflation at 2.6%. We ended ths year (2008) at 7.5%."

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It's not just Chile, of course. The whole region is now benefitting from the drop in prices (just check the Peru PPI figure in yesterday's chart, for one example). The countries of South America are net commodity exporters thus the drop in world commods prices is a net negative. However there is most definitely a silver lining to the cloud, and that silver lining is the easing of inflationary pressures.

So as growth was the strong point pumped by every regional government in 2005 to 2008 ("Growth!! Growth!! Look at how we're growing and don't worry about the inflation number, it's not that important anyway...now vote for me, suckaz") so the inflation rates regionwide will be the Presidential talking point of 2009 ("We have the important inflation figure under control. don't worry about growth, that will come back quickly enough because I'm wonderful and smart and have controlled inflation...now vote for me, suckaz").

In the words of Kurt Vonnegut, "So it goes.".

FruityRumPunch update

You thought I was joking in this post about Presidential downtime in Brazil this week? Here's Chile's Michelle Bachelet taking a late afternoon dip yesterday, accompanied by her director of programming and good friend María Angélica Alvarez.

Of course in Chile this has set off the chattering classes and some kind of debate about "Presidential image", which kinda underscores just how anally retentive the Chileans can be at times. The girl's having a swim...big deal. And she may not sport a top model's silhouette but she's been doing her job right recently. This time last year her approval rating was in the mid 40s but the latest poll gave her 56.8%.

So you go girl....but please don't suggest to Twobreakfasts that a media-witnessed dip in the sea might be good for his image, too. Ugh.

The thing to take away from the Unasur declaration

The Presidents of Unasur

The declaration hammered out by the Unasur heads of state last night is, I believe, one of those moments in history that is not recognized as such until much later (text in English and Spanish linked here). For sure the resolution was about the current unrest in Bolivia, but after reading it through several times I've been struck by its recognition of Latin America's turbulent past and the declaration's mature, forward-looking tone. What it's really saying to the world is something far more important than "hey, Santa Cruz, stop being jerks" (vitally important though that is). The Moneda Declaration says to the world

WE

DO

NOT

NEED

YOUR

HELP

ANY

MORE

For some, that outside help (from Asia, the USA, Europe, Soviet-era Russia, wherever) was welcomed, for others it was rejected. But it was always necessary on one level or another. However times have changed, and the Moneda Declaration may well be the moment historians use to mark that change. That change includes, "If you wish to help, we thank you. We will decide whether we want it or not, because now we do not need it."

Deep down it's about respect. From the end of the dictatorship era until now, Latin Americans have learned to respect democracy and respect themselves. Today they can look the rest of the world in the eye and say, "It's time you people respected us."

I warmly applaud the Moneda Declaration of September 15th 2008 and I am proud to live in South America at this time.

Unasur: The Official "Moneda Declaration" in full (English translation and Spanish original)

Here follows my English translation of the full Moneda Declaration that was unanimously agreed upon by the member states of Unasur tonight. The Spanish original is copied underneath. I believe my translation is accurate but take full responsibility for any mistakes if found by eagle eyes out there.

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Santiago de Chile, September 15 2008

The heads of state and the government of Unasur, meeting in the Palace of the Moneda, Santiago de Chile, September 15 2008, with the purpose of considering the situation in the Republic of Bolivia and remembering the tragic episodes 35 years ago in this very place that shocked all humanity:

Considering the the constitutive treaty of Unasur, signed in Brasilia on May 23rd 2008, enshrines the principles of unrestricted respect for sovereignty, of the non-interference in internal affairs, of the integrity and inviolbility of territory, of democracy and its institutions and the unrestricted respect of human rights;

Faced with the grave occurances reported in the sister Republic of Bolivia, and in favour of the strengthening of political dialogue and cooperation for the strengthening of citizen's security, the countries that make up Unasur express:

1. Their fullest and decided support for the constitutional government of President Evo Morales, whose mandate was ratified by a wide margin in the recent referendum.

2. They warn that its respective governments energetically reject and do not recognize any situation that implies an intent of civil coup d'etat, the rupture of institutional order, or that compromises the territorial integrity of the Republic of Bolivia

3. Consequent to the above, and in consideration of the grave situation that affects the sister Republic of Bolivia, they condemn the attack on government installations and public forces by groups that look for the destabilization of Bolivia's democracy, and demand the prompt return of those installations as condition for the start of the dialogue process.

4. At the same time, they call for all political and social actors involved to take the necessary measures so that acts of violence, intimidation, attacks on the democratic institutionality and estabished judicial order cease immediately.

5. In this context, they express the firmest condemnation of the massacre that took place in the department of Pando, and support the call made by the Bolivian government for a Unasur commission to be set up in this brother country to impartially investigate and report this lamentable occurance as soon as possible, and to formulate recommendations in such a way that it is not left unpunished.

6. They ask all members of Bolivian society to preserve national unity and the territorial integrity of that country, basic fundamentals of any State, and to reject any intent to undermine those principles.

7. They call for dialogue to establish the conditions that will permit the present situation to be overcome, and create the search for a sustainable solution, under full respect of the state of curfew and the current legal order.

8. In this respect, the Presidents of Unasur agree to create a commission open to all members, coordinated by the Pro-tempore Presidency, to accompany the tasks of the the dialogues conducted by the legitimate government of Bolivia

9. They will create a support and assistance commission to the government of Bolivia, in function to its requirements and including specialist human resources.

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Santiago de Chile, 15 de septiembre de 2008

Las Jefas y Jefes de Estado y de Gobierno de Unasur, reunidos en el Palacio de La Moneda, en Santiago de Chile, el 15 de septiembre de 2008, con el propósito de considerar la situación en la República de Bolivia, y recordando los trágicos episodios en que hace 35 años en este mismo lugar conmocionaron a toda la humanidad;

Considerando que el tratado constitutivo de Unasur, firmado en Brasilia, el 23 de mayo de 2008, consagra los principios del irrestricto respeto a la soberanía, a la no injerencia en asuntos internos, a la integridad y a la inviolabilidad territorial, a la democracia y sus instituciones y al irrestricto respeto de los Derechos Humanos;

Ante los graves hechos que se registran en la hermana República de Bolivia, y en pos del fortalecimiento del diálogo político y la cooperación para el fortalecimiento de la seguridad ciudadana, los países integrantes de Unasur expresan:

1. Su más pleno y decidido respaldo al Gobierno constitucional del Presidente Evo Morales, cuyo mandato fue ratificado por una amplia mayoría en el reciente referendo.

2. Advierten que sus respectivo Gobiernos rechazan enérgicamente y no reconocerán cualquier situación que implique un intento de golpe civil, la ruptura del orden institucional, o que comprometa la integridad territorial de la República de Bolivia.

3. Consecuente con lo anterior, y en consideración a la grave situación que afecta a la hermana República de Bolivia, condena el ataque a instalaciones gubernamentales y a la fuerza pública por parte de grupos que buscan la desestabilización de la democracia boliviana, exigiendo la pronta devolución de esas instalaciones como condición para el inicio de un proceso de diálogo.

4. A la vez, hacen un llamado a todos los actores políticos y sociales involucrados a que tomen las medidas necesarias para que cesen inmediatamente las acciones de violencia, intimidación y de desacato a la institucionalidad democrática y al orden jurídico establecido.

5. En ese contexto, expresan su más firme condena a la masacre que se vivió en el departamento de Pando, y respaldan el llamado realizado por el Gobierno boliviano, para que una comisión de Unasur pueda constituirse en ese hermano país, para realizar una investigación imparcial que permita esclarecer a la brevedad este lamentable suceso y formular recomendaciones, de tal manera de garantizar que el mismo no quede en la impunidad.

6. Instan a todos los miembros de la sociedad boliviana a preservar la unidad nacional y la integridad territorial de ese país, fundamentos básicos de todo Estado y a rechazar cualquier intento de socavar esos principios.

7. Hacen un llamado al diálogo para establecer las condiciones que permitan superar la actual situación y concertar la búsqueda de una solución sustentable, en el marco del pleno respeto al Estado de Derecho y al orden legal vigente.

8. En ese sentido, los Presidentes de Unasur acuerdan crear una comisión abierta a todos sus miembros, coordinada por la Presidencia Pro-Témpore, para acompañar los trabajos de esa mesa de diálogo, conducida por el legítimo Gobierno de Bolivia.

9. Crean una comisión de apoyo y asistencia al Gobierno de Bolivia, en función de sus requerimientos incluyendo recursos humanos especializados.