We haven't done this for a while, so last week's publication of Peru's January Imp/Ex numbers gives a good time to check out the state of play.
Let's start with exports-only. There were superduper fanfares in the local press about exports rising 44% or 48% or some weird number, but a more careful look at the numbers show that January 2010 compares very closely to Janaury 2008. In other words, two years have gone by and the net result for the country is zero.
Let's start with exports-only. There were superduper fanfares in the local press about exports rising 44% or 48% or some weird number, but a more careful look at the numbers show that January 2010 compares very closely to Janaury 2008. In other words, two years have gone by and the net result for the country is zero.
click on charts to enlargeOn the one hand, it's a good thing to see Peru coming out of the crisis trough of course. However, it hardly merits the rah rah you hear (and keep hearing all year) of the YoY comparatives that get spun out of Lima.
Also let's note, once again, just how little Peru's export mix has evolved. It's still a primary materials monoculture with metals (mainly copper and gold) making up the largest chunks of the total. How do you add value to a 1kg ingot, Twobreakfasts? Meanwhile, other traditional exports have trodden water along with the non-traditionals too. Here's the percentage breakdown of exports for January 2010:
Also let's note, once again, just how little Peru's export mix has evolved. It's still a primary materials monoculture with metals (mainly copper and gold) making up the largest chunks of the total. How do you add value to a 1kg ingot, Twobreakfasts? Meanwhile, other traditional exports have trodden water along with the non-traditionals too. Here's the percentage breakdown of exports for January 2010:
Mining exports: 62.48%
Other Traditional Exports: 17.2%
Non-Traditional Exports: 20.31%
Other Traditional Exports: 17.2%
Non-Traditional Exports: 20.31%
Peru's historic exports mix is with 60% metals....nowadays it's even higher. So much for the productive "miracle" of Peru's growth, which in fact rests squarely on the shoulders of large world miners that remit all profits back to Canada, Australia, the USA, the UK etc. Viva investment grade, baby...
Now comparing imports to exports, we again see that 2010 is no better compared to 2008 or even 2007, such is the inertia.
Now comparing imports to exports, we again see that 2010 is no better compared to 2008 or even 2007, such is the inertia.
A recovery is on? Yes no doubts, with that steady climb in imports underlying the good news. Anything better than 2007 or 2008? Nope. So next time the headlines scream the Kool-Aid at you, remember the real context of the "growth" figures that you'll see out of Peru this year.