Sunday, June 5, 2011

Peru Presidential Election Results: Exit Polls make Ollanta Humala the winner

It's not yet official and we're best advised to wait until at least the more accurate but still unofficial "fast count" results due around 8pm Peru time (9pm est), but the 4pm close of votes has just gone and Peru is allowed to give fairly accurate exit polls to the world. Here they are:

Ipsos/Apoyo: Ollanta Humala 52.6%, Keiko Fujimori 47.4%
Datum: Ollanta Humala 52.7%, Keiko Fujimori 47.3%
CPI: Ollanta Humala 52.5%, Keiko Fujimori 47.5%

In other words, barring a statistical freak Ollanta Humala is the new President Elect of Peru and will take office on July 28th. We'll update this post at 9pm EST with the fast count results, which is probably the same moment that Keiko Fujimori concedes defeat. Pisco sours served, the end.

UPDATE: We hear the normally very accurate "rapid count" result is 52.2% Ollanta, 47.8% Keiko.As soon as that is officially confirmed by Peru's election agency I'll put a link up here. It's now time to get on with writing the Weekly section about what to expect tomorrow.

UPDATE 2: This is good from Reuters, a round-up of reactions from various market commentators. For the record, put me in the Benito Berber camp. Also for the record, Alberto Bernal of Bulltick has always been a zero on Peru and he shows it once again here.

Update 3: The rapid counts look like this:

Ipsos/Apoyo: Ollanta Humala 51.4%, Keiko Fujimori 48.6%

Datum: Ollanta Humala 51.0%, Keiko Fujimori 49.0%
CPI: Ollanta Humala 52.2%, Keiko Fujimori 47.8%

Finally, official vote watchdog "Transparencia": Ollanta Humala 51.3%, Keiko Fujimori 48.7%

These "fast count" results and NOT the official results, but have proven to be historically very accurate and close to the final election figures in Peru. So take this one to the bank: Ollanta Humala is the next President of Peru. That is all.

Update 4: A bit of jollity and a classic out of Peru Fail this evening, which I'll translate underneath. In the photo we see the map of Peru, with the red colour showing the departments won by Ollanta Humala and the orange departments won by Keiko Fujimori.

person 1: "Who did the little blue ones vote for?"
person 2: "It's called Lake Titicaca"