Monday, April 11, 2011

Election thoughts

It's all over bar the shouting now, and Keiko Fujimori will certainly join Ollanta Humala in the second round run-off in early June. A couple of thoughts

1) Right now the Peruvian Nuevo Sol is trading half a centimo stronger than Friday, at S/2.799 to the dollar. Early trading has the IGBVL index off by a point and a half, but there's not much in the way of  wholesale selling in large lumps in anything exposed to Peru (my best guess is small players with too many nerves are going to feel silly later this morning) so it's hardly the panic attack and descent directly to some kind of anti-capitalist oogabooga system that political commentators North and South have been worried about.

2) Quote of the day goes to a loser. In Alejandro Toledo's concession speech last night, he said the following:
"Peru has expressed its anger, explicit in the urns but deaf in its words, about a discontent in having economic growth without a distribution of its benefits. Ten years of growth, it hasn't reached the people and they have found a candidate that channels these protests......(t)his is democracy, the democracy for which I've fought hard."

That's right on the button. My first reaction on seeing Ollanta and Keiko through to the next round was "ugh", which was then followed by "double ugh", but this morning the words of Toledo have stuck with me more than my personal tastes and choices. Democracy is exactly this, it's taking decisions you disagree with and accepting them because the decision was made on a fair showing of hands. You might not like the decisions democracy throws at you sometimes, but you respect them. Any other reaction is at your own peril.
IKN congratulates Ollanta Humala and Keiko Fujimori on reaching the second round run-off in Peru.

UPDATE: Bloomberg tries its very very hardest to write something scary... and fails. It also fails with its line on the forex, because it's a blatant lie. The Sol traded at S/2.805 to the dollar Friday, and if resident Lima Bloomiefool John Quigley doesn't know that he should get out of his office more often and check out Peru on the street level.
The benchmark Lima General stock index fell 0.8 percent, exceeding a drop of 0.5 percent for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. Peru’s dollar bonds due in 2025 dropped, sending yields up 3 basis points to 5.43 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The sol sank 0.1 percent to 2.8005 per dollar.

Really dudes, is that all you've got?

UPDATE 2: Aha! It looks like all they had was all it needed. The Lima Stock market now down nearly 3% on silly selling. Aaaah let 'em sell, they'll work it out eventually.