Saturday, April 2, 2011

Leaked poll numbers for the Peru Presidential elections

Apparently, this is what decent pollster CPI is going to publish some time tomorrow (well, today in fact as it's now seven minutes past midnight Lima time) as the result of its last opinion poll.
Ollanta Humala 28.3%, 
Alejandro Toledo 19.5%, 
Keiko Fujimori 19.0%
PPK 17.5%
Luis Castañeda13.8%.

The source of these numbers has been pretty accurate and fed correct info previously. Please be clear that as today, April 3rd, is the last day pollsters in Peru can publish survey results, we're going to get a whole slew of numbers pushed at us during the day from several different polling companies. In fact we've already has pollster IMA come out with its poll Saturday that puts Toledo (22%) in a clear second place behind Humala (26.1%), with Keiko (17.8%) in third. We'll be taking a deeper look and making some calls on how Peru-exposure may be affected by the run-up and aftermath of next weekend's election in IKN100, out later to subscribers.

UPDATE: IMASEN has its poll out (published in the reputable daily La Republica) which puts Humala on 25%, Toledo on 20% and Keiko on  18.2%. Then comes PPK oon 16.5% and Castañeda on 11.6%.