Friday, April 1, 2011

Peru: A three-way tie for 2nd

This link takes you to the Datum poll on the Peru presidential elections out this morning which has Ollanta Humala leading with 21.4%, Pedro Pablo Kuczynski second on 17.5%, Alejandro Toledo third with 17.4%, Keiko Fujimori fourth with 16.4% and Luis Castañeda's now fatlly wounded campaign now losing three more points at 12.6%.


  • Don't read anything into the differences between PPK, Toledo and Keiko. That's a three-way tie, period
  • April 3rd is the last day for polls, so there's going to be a real flurry of them over the next three days. Reliable PUCP is due out today, most others Sunday.
  • Take them all with a pinch of salt these days. The only thing we can really say now is that Luis Castañeda is toast. Everything else is up for grabs.
  • On Sunday evening (April 3rd) the live TV debate between the 5 main candidates will be a key moment in the campaign. Until that is out the way, nothing is decided.
  • Subscribers: We'll be going into detail again on Sunday and there will probably be a later update on the Sunday evening debate too (especially if something market-moving happens).

UPDATE: Just heard (not sure if these are 100% exact but won't be far wrong) this about the PUCP poll:  Humala 24.3%, Toledo 18.8%, Fujimori 18.4%, PPK 16.8%, Castañeda 12%.