Thursday, April 7, 2011

Peru: Latest poll

Due to silly rules that have no concept of the 21st century, polls aren't allowed to be published in the country during the final week before a major election but pollsters are allowed to do surveys and release them to foreign journalists and news media. Here's a paste out of a Reuters wire note just released (now got a link to a Spanish language version here and an English language link here):

(Note: election law forbids publication of polls in Peru a week prior
to April 10 voting.)

   (Adds details on poll, election)
   LIMA, April 7 (Reuters) - An Ipsos Apoyo poll gives Peru's
Nationalist presidential candidate Ollanta Humala 28 percent of the
vote in Peru ahead of Sunday's election, and he will likely face
lawmaker Keiko Fujimori in the second round, a source who had access
to the poll said on Thursday.
   Fujimori had 21 percent of the vote, while former President
Alejandro Toledo and former Prime Minister Pedro Pablo Kuczynski each
had 18 percent in the poll, the source said, asking not to be
   A second source confirmed Fujimori was favored to face Humala in a
run-off vote scheduled for June 5.
   Humala also leads polls by Apoyo, CPI, Datum and Catholic
University. Those polls have a margin of error of between 2.2 and 2.8
percent. The exact dates and margin of error of the latest Ipsos poll
were not immediately known.
   Investors fear Humala might unwind years of reforms in one of the
world's fastest-growing economies, while Fujimori's critics worry she
would show little respect for human rights.
   Both have disapproval ratings of around 50 percent but are likely
to make it to the second round as a moderate majority splinters
between Toledo, Kuczynski and former Lima Mayor Luis Castaneda.

 (Reporting by Patricia Velez and Teresa Cespedes)
 ((caroline.stauffer; Reuters Messaging: at

So this poll shows virtually the same numbers as the last Ipsos/Apoyo poll from Sunday 3rd April where Ollanta Humala was given 27.2%, Keiko Fujimori 20.5%, Alejandro Toledo 18.5%, PPK at 18.1% and the others back there.

UPDATE: No link for this one (sorry...blame Peru's archaic laws, not me), but another pollster PUCP now has "unofficial" figures out today that put Ollanta on 26%, Toledo at 20.8%, Keiko at 20.1% and PPK at 18.1%. It's again notable that the PUCP numbers from today are similar to the PUCP numbers of last Sunday, when it was Ollanta 26.3%, Toledo 20.8%, Keiko 20.3% and PPK 18.5%.

UPDATE 2: Kind reader 'Tweetie' adds this in the comments section:

Here's another one, from the nasdaq site:

Private Peru Polls Show Leftist Still Leading For President

LIMA -(Dow Jones)- Two new opinion polls released Thursday confirm the lead of leftist presidential candidate Ollanta Humala ahead of Peru's April 10 general elections.

The opinion polls, which can't be published in Peru due to legal restrictions, show in second place Congresswoman Keiko Fujimori, 35, daughter of jailed former President Alberto Fujimori.

The surveys, conducted by pollsters CPI and Ipsos-Apoyo for private clients, show Humala, 48, with about 28% support and Keiko Fujimori with 21.4%.

Both polls show ex-Prime Minister Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, 72, in third place with 18.4% support.

The Ipsos-Apoyo poll shows ex-president Alejandro Toledo with 18.2% support, while the CPI poll shows him further back.

Both polls surveyed around 2,000 people and have an error margin of about two percentage points.

No candidate is expected to win a majority in Sunday's first-round election and a runoff is scheduled on June 5. Any candidate that wins a majority vote in the first round would be declared winner of the overall election, and cancel any second-round vote.

Pollsters are continuing to do surveys and release information to private clients.