Tuesday, September 2, 2008

Trading Post (after the bell edition)


I was so fascinated by the market today that I took my daughter into town for an ice-cream and bought her a new pair of sneakers with Kung Fu Panda's picture on the sides. Far more productive an afternoon than watching this circus (and I know her grandmother will be happy to read all this).

Just to pick a few daily disasters: DMM.to, KGC (and therefore ARU.to), JAG, LA.v, CS.to, MAI.to, BWR.to, FCX, FAN.to. I'm sure you have your own 'favourite' to tack on the list, too.

Vale (RIO) down 5% today. A dude named "El Zero" (good moniker) mailed me today, asking my opinion about this Bloomberg piece that explained to the world why RIO was about to double. My answer is one of the most quoted quotes from 'Reminiscences of a Stock Operator', the book I linked for you over the weekend.

"I began to realize that the big money must necessarily be in the big swing. Whatever might seem to give a big swing, initial impulse, the fact is that its continuance is not the result of manipulation by pools or artifice by financiers, but depends upon basic conditions. And no matter who opposes it, the swing must inevitably run as far and as fast and as long as the impelling forces determine."

This is why you need to read the book. It's full of gems like that one. It's as relevant as analyses published this morning. Go get your free copy (I note that 67 people already have, which is good).

Amazingly there were a few miners in green today. One-and-a-half cheers for Vena Resources (VEM.to), which managed a winning day on good volume, too. It looks like I underestimated the Canadian market a bit today, because I thought they wouldn't know what the name Romaña-Letts signifies in Peru mining circles. For those who don't know, it signifies "respect". Is this thing finally catching a bid or two?

Another miner up today is Baja Mining (BAJ.to). I like the way this company turns its back on the stupidity of recent market action and just gets on with the job of constructing its mine. Boleo is behind schedule for sure, but Greenslade&Co is not just throwing up hands and saying 'oh woe is me.' Good for them.

Minera Andes (MAI.to) released another positive PR after the bell. This one should be a wake up call to the person who mailed me a few weeks ago asking why San José is doubling production throughput tonnage to 1,500tpd when M+I resources aren't that big. At the time my answer was "either do a site visit, or talk to someone who has visited already". There are enough untapped veins in that area to make Dracula swoon.

Question: Does this ruling make Grupo Mexico a buy at last? Answer: Yes. Finally it's buyable.

UPDATE late night: A mailer has just reprimanded me for forgetting to mention that Corriente Resources (CTQ.to) (ETQ) also fought valiantly against the 'corriente' (Spanish for 'current') and managed to end in green as well. Well fair enough, but it only ended green cos Dundee painted the tape 18 minutes from the end of play with 400 shares, dj ;-). But hey...a win's a win, right?