Does Intrade have a market on the Ecuador referendum coming up on the 28th September? If so, you can now put your mortgage on Studmuffin getting his way....yet again.The largest indigenous organization, the umbrella group CONAIE, yesterday announced its support for the yes vote, though it was quick to point out that the project constitution does not meet all its demands and that their support for the new constitution is nothing to do with their opinion of Correa.
No matter; with CONAIE, the muffin man has 10% of the population voting his way. Most of those were already in his column, but this will be good for a 3% national swing towards "yes". With Polls already showing growing support for the yes vote and the way those same polls consistently underestimate Correa support, this one is now in the bag.
UPDATE: See this latest post for the updated poll numbers